{"id":124686,"date":"2025-10-02T17:39:42","date_gmt":"2025-10-02T17:39:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/?p=124686"},"modified":"2025-10-02T17:39:42","modified_gmt":"2025-10-02T17:39:42","slug":"modeli-i-paqendrueshem-ekonomik-i-shqiperise-duhet-te-shqetesoje-shba-te-dhe-be-ne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/2025\/10\/02\/modeli-i-paqendrueshem-ekonomik-i-shqiperise-duhet-te-shqetesoje-shba-te-dhe-be-ne\/","title":{"rendered":"Modeli i paq\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm ekonomik i Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb duhet t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsoj\u00eb SHBA-t\u00eb dhe BE-n\u00eb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nga\u00a0Nikola KEDHI<\/strong><\/p>\n

Instituti Konservator Shqiptar publikoi s\u00eb fundmi nj\u00eb studim t\u00eb plot\u00eb mbi modelin ekonomik t\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, dhe gjetjet e tij duhet t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsojn\u00eb politikan\u00ebt n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb, Uashington dhe Bruksel.<\/p>\n

Pas fasad\u00ebs s\u00eb nj\u00eb rritjes ekonomike modeste, Shqip\u00ebria, nj\u00eb vend kandidat p\u00ebr BE dhe an\u00ebtare e NATO-s, \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb tejet e varur nga flukset e paligjshme t\u00eb parave.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr sa koh\u00eb q\u00eb kjo rrug\u00eb nuk ndryshohet, kjo \u2018ekonomi iluzioni\u2019 k\u00ebrc\u00ebnon jo vet\u00ebm demokracin\u00eb dhe stabilitetin e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, por edhe sigurin\u00eb e Europ\u00ebs dhe interesat strategjike t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs n\u00eb nj\u00eb rajon t\u00eb brisht\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Numrat flasin vet\u00eb. Prodhimi i Brendsh\u00ebm Bruto i Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb arriti n\u00eb 24 miliard\u00eb euro n\u00eb 2024, me nj\u00eb rritje mesatare prej 4% n\u00eb vitet e fundit.<\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, sektor\u00ebt produktiv\u00eb po kolapsojn\u00eb: industria dhe bujq\u00ebsia jan\u00eb n\u00eb recesion, nd\u00ebrsa nd\u00ebrtimi dhe sh\u00ebrbimet, sektor\u00eb me kthime t\u00eb larta ku shpesh lahen parat\u00eb e paligjshme, dominojn\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Raporti i OECD p\u00ebr Konvergenc\u00ebn e BE-s\u00eb rendit Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb n\u00eb vendin e fundit p\u00ebr klim\u00ebn e biznesit. Sipas burimeve t\u00eb ndryshme, si gazetareske ashtu edhe t\u00eb autoriteteve globale, flukset e paligjshme arrijn\u00eb t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 4 miliard\u00eb euro n\u00eb vit, ose rreth 17% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb. Deklaratat m\u00eb t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb Departamentit t\u00eb Shtetit Amerikan mbi Klim\u00ebn e Investimeve kan\u00eb evidentuar t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtat shqet\u00ebsime.<\/p>\n

Ky deformim shkon edhe m\u00eb tej. Ekonomia e zez\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebn 30\u201335% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb (7\u20138 miliard\u00eb euro), niveli m\u00eb i lart\u00eb n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, ku mesatarja \u00ebsht\u00eb 10%.<\/p>\n

T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb tregojn\u00eb se vet\u00ebm 22% e nd\u00ebrtimit financohet nga kredit\u00eb bankare, duke l\u00ebn\u00eb shumic\u00ebn e projekteve t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetura nga kapital i paqart\u00eb. Paraja n\u00eb qarkullim \u00ebsht\u00eb 4.5 miliard\u00eb euro, 18% e PBB-s\u00eb, dy her\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se mesatarja e BE-s\u00eb, dhe Balanca e Pagesave p\u00ebrmban 0.8 miliard\u00eb euro \u2018gabime neto\u2019 t\u00eb paqarta (3.1% e PBB-s\u00eb, m\u00eb e larta n\u00eb Europ\u00eb), me gjas\u00eb pothuajse t\u00eb gjitha rrjedha t\u00eb paligjshme.<\/p>\n

Investimet e huaja jan\u00eb t\u00eb deformuara. Nd\u00ebrsa industria dhe prodhimi bien n\u00eb vazhdim\u00ebsi, investimet e huaja n\u00eb sektorin e pasurive t\u00eb patundshme u rrit\u00ebn nga 5.7% e PBB-s\u00eb n\u00eb 2014 n\u00eb 29% sot. Megjithat\u00eb, Shqip\u00ebria ka norm\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt t\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb FDI-s\u00eb n\u00eb rajon dhe renditjen m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt p\u00ebr klim\u00ebn e biznesit dhe infrastruktur\u00ebn midis vendeve t\u00eb Ballkanit Per\u00ebndimor.<\/p>\n

T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat tregtare forcojn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pamje t\u00eb brisht\u00ebsis\u00eb. Deficiti tregtar i mallrave ishte -25.3% e PBB-s\u00eb n\u00eb tremujorin e par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2025. Eksportet jan\u00eb 4 miliard\u00eb euro dhe n\u00eb r\u00ebnie p\u00ebr tre vite radhazi.<\/p>\n

Bujq\u00ebsia, ende me 30% t\u00eb fuqis\u00eb pun\u00ebtore, ka sh\u00ebnuar tkurrje \u00e7do tremujor q\u00eb nga 2021. Remitancat (1.2 miliard\u00eb euro n\u00eb vit) dhe turizmi (20\u201325% e PBB-s\u00eb) nuk mund t\u00eb shpjegojn\u00eb rritjen prej 30% t\u00eb lekut ndaj euros q\u00eb nga 2015, nd\u00ebrsa sivjet edhe turizmi pati nj\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsim n\u00eb rritjen e vet.<\/p>\n

Banka Qendrore nd\u00ebrhyri vitin e kaluar me blerje valutore prej 933 milion\u00eb euro, por kursi i k\u00ebmbimit pothuajse nuk ndryshoi, d\u00ebshmi e flukseve masive t\u00eb paras\u00eb s\u00eb paligjshme n\u00eb euro.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, Shqip\u00ebria p\u00ebrballet me kolaps demografik. Sipas EUROSTAT, 1.1 milion qytetar\u00eb, 40% e popullsis\u00eb, kan\u00eb emigruar q\u00eb nga 2014. Lindjet ran\u00eb 6.5% n\u00eb gjysm\u00ebn e par\u00eb t\u00eb 2025 pas nj\u00eb r\u00ebnieje prej 5% n\u00eb 2024. Q\u00eb nga 2021, vdekjet tejkalojn\u00eb lindjet n\u00eb disa vite, dhe OKB e rendit Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00ebn n\u00eb bot\u00eb p\u00ebr r\u00ebnien e natalitetit.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr t\u00eb mbushur hendekun e fuqis\u00eb pun\u00ebtore, qeveria ka importuar punonj\u00ebs nga Azia dhe Afrika, shum\u00eb prej t\u00eb cil\u00ebve synojn\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorin Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb si pik\u00eb tranziti drejt BE-s\u00eb dhe Britanis\u00eb s\u00eb Madhe.<\/p>\n

Pasojat sociale jan\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnda. Varf\u00ebria \u00ebsht\u00eb af\u00ebr 20%, nd\u00ebrsa 42% p\u00ebrballen me p\u00ebrjashtim social. Paga mesatare mujore \u00ebsht\u00eb 838 euro, nd\u00ebrsa vendi ka pag\u00ebn minimale m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt n\u00eb Europ\u00eb.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb Tiran\u00eb, ku dend\u00ebsia e popullsis\u00eb ka arritur 20,000 banor\u00eb p\u00ebr km\u00b2 (kat\u00ebr her\u00eb mesatarja e BE-s\u00eb), 51,129 apartamente jan\u00eb bosh, normat e vakanc\u00ebs luhaten midis 33-40%, dhe ndotja e ajrit ka shkaktuar 100,000 vdekje t\u00eb parakohshme q\u00eb nga 1990.<\/p>\n

Modeli ekonometrik i Institutit Konservator Shqiptar konfirmon rrezikun e evidentuar nga raportet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. N\u00ebse flukset e paligjshme do t\u00eb uleshin 30% (p\u00ebr shembull si nga lufta q\u00eb po b\u00ebhet nga SHBA ndaj k\u00ebtyre flukseve), PBB-ja do t\u00eb kontraktohej n\u00eb vitin e par\u00eb me 0.85% dhe papun\u00ebsia do t\u00eb rritej. Nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrprerje totale do t\u00eb tkurrte PBB-n\u00eb me 2.8% n\u00eb vitin e par\u00eb dhe do t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrronte nd\u00ebrtimin.<\/p>\n

K\u00ebto skenar\u00eb t\u00eb goditjes tregojn\u00eb sa e varur \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb Shqip\u00ebria nga parat\u00eb e paligjshme. Pse duhet t\u00eb r\u00ebndoj\u00eb kjo p\u00ebr lexuesit amerikan\u00eb dhe evropian\u00eb, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 atyre shqiptar\u00eb q\u00eb e ndjejn\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00ebt?Sepse Shqip\u00ebria \u00ebsht\u00eb an\u00ebtare e NATO-s n\u00eb Adriatik, direkt p\u00ebrball\u00eb Italis\u00eb. N\u00eb nj\u00eb rend bot\u00ebror n\u00eb ndryshim, me k\u00ebrc\u00ebnime gjeopolitike n\u00eb rritje, NATO nuk mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrballoj\u00eb nj\u00eb hallk\u00eb t\u00eb dob\u00ebt n\u00eb skajin e saj juglindor.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr SHBA-n\u00eb, e cila ka rinisur luft\u00ebn kund\u00ebr kartelave n\u00ebn Presidentin Trump, Shqip\u00ebria p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson nj\u00eb vij\u00eb fronti dhe nj\u00eb dob\u00ebsi. P\u00ebr BE-n\u00eb, kjo ngrit pyetjen n\u00ebse zgjerimi do t\u00eb thot\u00eb importim t\u00eb paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebris\u00eb dhe jo eksport stabiliteti.<\/p>\n

Instituti Konservator Shqiptar ka propozuar nj\u00eb plan t\u00eb qart\u00eb p\u00ebr qeverin\u00eb, opozit\u00ebn dhe shoq\u00ebrin\u00eb shqiptare. S\u00eb pari, luft\u00eb e pakompromis e k\u00ebtyre flukseve t\u00eb paligjshme, dhe nj\u00eb vullnet politik p\u00ebr ta b\u00ebr\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb: forcim i kontrollit n\u00eb dogana, modernizim i inteligjenc\u00ebs dhe krijimi i nj\u00eb task-force t\u00eb pavarur kund\u00ebr larjes s\u00eb parave.<\/p>\n

S\u00eb dyti, ulje e taksave dhe burokracis\u00eb shtet\u00ebrore p\u00ebr t\u00eb nxitur dinamizmin e ofert\u00ebs dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb zhvendosur burimet nga spekulimi i sektorit t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtimit drejt prodhimit dhe eksporteve.<\/p>\n

S\u00eb treti, reduktim masiv i favorizimeve qeveritare dhe kapjes s\u00eb shtetit duke audituar t\u00eb gjitha tender\u00ebt e PPP, duke p\u00ebrjashtuar kompanit\u00eb guask\u00eb dhe duke adresuar problemin e nd\u00ebrmarrjeve shtet\u00ebrore joefikase.<\/p>\n

Vizioni yn\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb i thjesht\u00eb por ambicioz: transformimi i Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb ekonomi prodhuese dhe eksportuese, konkurruese n\u00eb bujq\u00ebsi, energji, sh\u00ebrbime sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore dhe teknologji, e bazuar n\u00eb tregje t\u00eb lira dhe institucione t\u00eb forta me kontroll dhe balanca.<\/p>\n

Me nj\u00eb regjim taksash t\u00eb ul\u00ebta, qeveri t\u00eb kufizuar dhe investime n\u00eb inovacion e prodhim, Shqip\u00ebria mund t\u00eb dyfishoj\u00eb PBB-n\u00eb p\u00ebr frym\u00eb deri n\u00eb 2030 dhe t\u00eb ndal\u00eb hemorragjin\u00eb demografike duke i dh\u00ebn\u00eb qytetar\u00ebve nj\u00eb arsye p\u00ebr t\u00eb q\u00ebndruar.<\/p>\n

Koha \u00ebsht\u00eb e shkurt\u00ebr. P\u00ebr SHBA dhe Europ\u00ebn, bastet jan\u00eb t\u00eb qarta: nj\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri e q\u00ebndrueshme, e begat\u00eb dhe demokratike \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb fortifikim i Per\u00ebndimit, n\u00eb nj\u00eb rajon delikat. Nj\u00eb model ekonomik i paq\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm n\u00eb skajin jugor t\u00eb NATO-s \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nga\u00a0Nikola KEDHI Instituti Konservator Shqiptar publikoi s\u00eb fundmi nj\u00eb studim t\u00eb plot\u00eb mbi modelin ekonomik t\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, dhe gjetjet e tij duhet t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsojn\u00eb politikan\u00ebt n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb, Uashington dhe Bruksel. Pas fasad\u00ebs s\u00eb nj\u00eb rritjes ekonomike modeste, Shqip\u00ebria, nj\u00eb vend kandidat p\u00ebr BE dhe an\u00ebtare e NATO-s, \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb tejet e varur nga flukset e …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":90360,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-124686","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-editorial"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/124686","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=124686"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/124686\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":124687,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/124686\/revisions\/124687"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90360"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=124686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=124686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=124686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}