{"id":29786,"date":"2022-11-25T18:19:35","date_gmt":"2022-11-25T18:19:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/?p=29786"},"modified":"2022-11-25T18:19:35","modified_gmt":"2022-11-25T18:19:35","slug":"zeri-i-amerikes-inflacioni-i-larte-parashikohet-renie-ekonomike-dhe-ulje-e-konsumit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/2022\/11\/25\/zeri-i-amerikes-inflacioni-i-larte-parashikohet-renie-ekonomike-dhe-ulje-e-konsumit\/","title":{"rendered":"Z\u00ebri i Amerik\u00ebs: Inflacioni i lart\u00eb, parashikohet r\u00ebnie ekonomike dhe ulje e konsumit!"},"content":{"rendered":"

N\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri, Banka Q\u00ebndrore ka nd\u00ebrhyr\u00eb disa her\u00eb brenda pak muajve, duke rritur norm\u00ebn baz\u00eb t\u00eb interesit, me q\u00ebllim p\u00ebr t\u00eb ulur inflacionin. Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb instrument q\u00eb po p\u00ebrdoret n\u00eb mjaft vende nga bankat q\u00ebndrore, p\u00ebr t\u00eb frenuar rritjen e \u00e7mimeve shkaktuar nga mungesa e ofert\u00ebs n\u00eb tregjet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, pas agresionit rus n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. Por edhe pse pritet t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb n\u00eb uljen e \u00e7mimeve, nga ana tjet\u00ebr, kjo mas\u00eb, parashikohet t\u00eb sjell\u00eb r\u00ebnie ekonomike dhe ulje t\u00eb konsumit gjat\u00eb muajve n\u00eb vazhdim. Bankat treg\u00ebtare q\u00eb preken t\u00eb parat, gjithashtu pritet t\u00eb shtrenjtojn\u00eb kredit\u00eb, p\u00ebr qytetar\u00ebt dhe bizneset.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Shqip\u00ebria po p\u00ebrballet me nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve, q\u00eb prej fillimit t\u00eb luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb n\u00eb shkurt t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti. Inflacioni arriti n\u00eb 8.3% n\u00eb muajin tetor, rreth dy her\u00eb m\u00eb e lart\u00eb s\u00eb n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb vitit, dhe m\u00eb e larta q\u00eb prej dy dekadash. Pasojat e luft\u00ebs po d\u00ebmtojn\u00eb n\u00eb vijim\u00ebsi gjith\u00eb zinxhirin e furnizimeve n\u00eb tregjet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare pasi Rusia dhe Ukraina jan\u00eb vende t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme n\u00eb eksportin e gazit dhe drith\u00ebrave.<\/p>\n

K\u00ebrkesat jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larta s\u00eb ofertat dhe shtrenjtimi i burimeve t\u00eb energjis\u00eb n\u00eb Eurozon\u00eb ka sjell\u00eb nj\u00eb inflacion t\u00eb lart\u00eb mbi 10%. Bankat q\u00ebndrore n\u00eb mjaft vende t\u00eb bot\u00ebs, si dhe ajo q\u00ebndrore europiane po rrisin norm\u00ebn baz\u00eb t\u00eb interesit me q\u00ebllim p\u00ebr t\u00eb frenuar rritjen e \u00e7mimieve, nj\u00eb politik\u00eb q\u00eb po e ndjek dhe Shqip\u00ebria.<\/p>\n

Banka q\u00ebndrore ka nd\u00ebrhyr\u00eb 5 her\u00eb q\u00eb prej muajit maj, duke e \u00e7uar norm\u00ebn baz\u00eb t\u00eb interesit nga 0.5-2.75%, q\u00eb gjithsesi mbetet n\u00ebn mesataren historike t\u00eb dy dekadave. Kjo mas\u00eb synon t\u00eb sjell\u00eb ulje t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve p\u00ebrmes p\u00ebrmes uljes s\u00eb fuqis\u00eb bler\u00ebse, pra t\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs. Por kjo nga ana tjet\u00ebr pritet t\u00eb sjell\u00eb nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie ekonomike n\u00eb 2.6%, gjat\u00eb vitit 2023 nga 3.7 q\u00eb parashikohet t\u00eb jet\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb vit. Sektori i par\u00eb q\u00eb ndjen pasojat e ndryshimeve t\u00eb politik\u00ebs monetare \u00ebsht\u00eb ai bankar, pasi me rritjen e norm\u00ebs baz\u00eb t\u00eb interesit, kredit\u00eb shtrenjtohen p\u00ebr qytetar\u00ebt dhe bizneset.<\/p>\n

\u201cNj\u00eb klient dikur kur merrte nj\u00eb kredi i kushtont\u00eb diku tek 3.8%. Kjo p\u00ebrkthehet n\u00eb nj\u00eb k\u00ebst mujor x, le t\u00eb themi sipas ma\u00ebdh\u00ebsis\u00eb. Ky 3.8 % ka shkuar 7,74%. Pra kujt po i indeksohet kredia do paguaj\u00eb 37% m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb terma mujor. \u00cbsht\u00eb e p\u00ebrllogaritur n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb hipotetike n\u00eb nj\u00eb kredi prej 10 milion lek\u00eb q\u00eb duhen p\u00ebr t\u00eb bler\u00eb nj\u00eb apartament\u201d- tha p\u00ebr Z\u00ebrin e Amerik\u00ebs Blodin \u00c7u\u00e7i, ekspert i tregjeve financiare, \u201cCaesar Investment Advisory\u201d.<\/p>\n

Drejtor i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm ekzekutiv i bank\u00ebs Intesa Sanpaolo Albania i tha Z\u00ebrit t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs, se i konsideron t\u00eb nevojshme masat e Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, por shpreson q\u00eb ato n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen t\u00eb frenohen. Rritja norm\u00ebs baz\u00eb t\u00eb interesit, mund t\u00eb sjell\u00eb p\u00ebr bank\u00ebn m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura p\u00ebr momentin, sipas tij, por n\u00eb nj\u00eb plan afatgjat\u00eb ka efekt negativ, pasi kreditimi bie dhe kredit\u00eb e k\u00ebqija rriten.<\/p>\n

\u201cN\u00eb rast se rritja e normave t\u00eb interesit \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb e lart\u00eb kjo mund t\u00eb sjell\u00eb nj\u00eb efekt negativ n\u00eb ekonomi dhe madje ta reflektoj\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb efekt negativ tek klient\u00ebt q\u00eb marrin kredi. K\u00ebta t\u00eb fundit do t\u00eb ndikohen tek aft\u00ebsia e tyre ripaguese e vler\u00ebs s\u00eb kredis\u00eb. Pra, natyrisht, ne jemi t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuar p\u00ebr situat\u00ebn. Madje ne po p\u00ebrpiqemi t\u00eb kuptojm\u00eb se cili do t\u00eb ishte ndikimi i k\u00ebtyre normave t\u00eb interesit tek klient\u00ebt tan\u00eb, si dhe t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktojm\u00eb dhe parandalojm\u00eb \u00e7do rrezik t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm nga rritja e kredive me probleme\u201d- tha p\u00ebr Z\u00ebrin e Amerik\u00ebs Alessandro D\u2019Oria, Drejtor i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm ekzekutiv i Bank\u00ebs Intesa Sanpaolo Albania.<\/p>\n

Autoritetet e Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb nuk shohin rrezik p\u00ebr bankat treg\u00ebtare, pasi sipas tyre, ato jan\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00ebkapitalizuara, kan\u00eb likuiditet dhe rezistenc\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb ndaj goditjeve. Por bizneset q\u00eb kan\u00eb ose duan t\u00eb marrin kredi, sipas ekspert\u00ebve, pritet t\u2019i transferojn\u00eb kostot m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb kredive n\u00eb produktet q\u00eb shesin dhe sh\u00ebrbimet q\u00eb ofrojn\u00eb. Ndaj dhe Banka Q\u00ebndrore parashikon inflacion n\u00eb rritje gjat\u00eb muajve n\u00eb vazhdim dhe m\u00eb pas gjat\u00eb vitit t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm nj\u00eb reduktim t\u00eb tij. Por rreziku mbetet gjithnj\u00eb prezent p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb, kjo dhe n\u00eb var\u00ebsi t\u00eb ecuris\u00eb s\u00eb tregjeve nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, sipas autoriteteve t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb.<\/p>\n

\u201cDy jan\u00eb faktor\u00ebt q\u00eb do ndikojn\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb reduktim, stabilizimi i \u00e7mimeve n\u00eb tregjet e huaja dhe t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e fundit tregojn\u00eb q\u00eb nj\u00eb gj\u00eb e till\u00eb ka nisur, si dhe politikat monetare, pra rritja e norm\u00ebs baz\u00eb t\u00eb interesit. K\u00ebto do t\u00eb sjellin nj\u00eb ekuilib\u00ebr t\u00eb mir\u00eb mes k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs dhe ofert\u00ebs, dhe do t\u00eb leht\u00ebsoj\u00eb presionet inflacioniste. Aktualisht pasiguria dhe parashikimet shoq\u00ebrohen me skenar rreziku n\u00eb kahun lart p\u00ebr inflacionin dhe n\u00eb kahun r\u00ebn\u00ebs p\u00ebr rritjen ekonomike. Kjo ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht, n\u00ebse kemi lajme t\u00eb k\u00ebqija nga Europa\u201d- tha p\u00ebr Z\u00ebrin e Amerik\u00ebs Zv. Drejtorja e departamentit t\u00eb politik\u00ebs monetare n\u00eb Bank\u00ebn e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb prej rreziqeve q\u00eb bart rritja e norm\u00ebs baz\u00eb t\u00eb interesit lidhet edhe me shtrenjtimin e borxhit publik. Qeveria n\u00eb vijim do t\u00eb paguaj\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb interesa p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb borxh, i cili gjithsesi vijon t\u00eb mbetet i lart\u00eb.<\/p>\n

\u201cN\u00eb kuad\u00ebr t\u00eb buxhetit t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb shtetit n\u00ebnkupton rritje e shpenzimeve p\u00ebr di\u00e7ka q\u00eb nuk prodhon para. Pra jan\u00eb shpenzime pasive t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb k\u00ebto para asaj i duhet t\u2019i heq\u00eb diku. Dhe n\u00ebse nuk do t\u00eb rris\u00eb taksat, do t\u00eb rishp\u00ebrndaj\u00eb shpenzimet n\u00eb ekonomi. Kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb m\u00eb pak para n\u00eb arsim, sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsi, infrastruktur\u00eb, etj pra nj\u00eb shtr\u00ebnges\u00eb e m\u00ebtejshme n\u00eb mir\u00ebqenien e p\u00ebrgjithshme\u201d- u shpreh p\u00ebr Z\u00ebrin e Amerik\u00ebs Elvin Meka, Dekan i Fakultetit t\u00eb Ekonomis\u00eb, UET.<\/p>\n

Qeveria \u00ebsht\u00eb zotuar ta ul\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb vit borxhin n\u00eb rreth 71% t\u00eb PBB, nga 73 q\u00eb ishte n\u00eb vitin 2021. Autoritetet e Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb mendojn\u00eb se efektet negative t\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb kostove t\u00eb k\u00ebtij borxhi, pritet t\u00eb zbuten nga rritja ekonomike, e cila p\u00ebr vitin e ardhsh\u00ebm parashikohet e ngadal\u00ebsuar, por gjithsesi pozitive, rreth 2.%.<\/p>\n

\u201cPor n\u00eb nj\u00eb moment q\u00eb ekonomia \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb rritje dhe n\u00eb fakt politikat fiskale jan\u00eb n\u00eb kahun konsolidues borxhi publik do t\u00eb ulet\u201d- vijoi Zv. Drejtorja e departamentit t\u00eb politik\u00ebs monetare n\u00eb Bank\u00ebn e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb<\/p>\n

N\u00eb vler\u00ebsimet e FMN n\u00eb muajin tetor, edhe pse n\u00ebnvizohet se ekonomia shqiptare ka p\u00ebrballuar goditje t\u00eb shumta relativisht mir\u00eb, s\u00ebrish autoriteteve u vihen n\u00eb dukje v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsit\u00eb q\u00eb sjell borxhi i lart\u00eb publik n\u00eb p\u00ebrballimin e kriz\u00ebs globale t\u00eb ushqimeve dhe energjis\u00eb. Fondi k\u00ebshillon konsolidim fiskal, mb\u00ebshtetje buxhetore t\u00eb p\u00ebrkohshme p\u00ebr shtresat n\u00eb nevoj\u00eb, shtr\u00ebngim t\u00eb m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm t\u00eb politik\u00ebs monetare, pra rritje t\u00eb norm\u00ebs baz\u00eb t\u00eb interesit, si dhe rritje t\u00eb efi\u00e7ens\u00ebs dhe besueshm\u00ebris\u00eb tek financat publike. Dhe n\u00eb nj\u00eb terren t\u00eb panjohur si pasoj\u00eb e luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb dhe ecuris\u00eb e tregjeve globale, sfidat p\u00ebr t\u00eb patur nj\u00eb ekonomi t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme mbeten t\u00eb m\u00ebdha.\/VOA\/<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

N\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri, Banka Q\u00ebndrore ka nd\u00ebrhyr\u00eb disa her\u00eb brenda pak muajve, duke rritur norm\u00ebn baz\u00eb t\u00eb interesit, me q\u00ebllim p\u00ebr t\u00eb ulur inflacionin. Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb instrument q\u00eb po p\u00ebrdoret n\u00eb mjaft vende nga bankat q\u00ebndrore, p\u00ebr t\u00eb frenuar rritjen e \u00e7mimeve shkaktuar nga mungesa e ofert\u00ebs n\u00eb tregjet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, pas agresionit rus n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":29787,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29786","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29786","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29786"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29786\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29787"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29786"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29786"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29786"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}