{"id":42644,"date":"2023-04-05T09:31:07","date_gmt":"2023-04-05T09:31:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/?p=42644"},"modified":"2023-04-05T09:31:07","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T09:31:07","slug":"gjeopolitika-e-djepit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/2023\/04\/05\/gjeopolitika-e-djepit\/","title":{"rendered":"Gjeopolitika e djepit"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Nga Kina tek Rusia tek Europa, distopit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebqija demografike b\u00ebhen realitet. Vet\u00ebm Amerika shp\u00ebton.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cRryma ishte e shpejt\u00eb, por jo aq e fort\u00eb as p\u00ebr nj\u00eb notar joekspert. Mund t\u00eb krijoni nj\u00eb ide p\u00ebr \u00e7udin\u00eb e k\u00ebtyre njer\u00ebzve, kur do ju them as asnj\u00ebri prej tyre as nuk e vrau mendjen m\u00eb s\u00eb paku p\u00ebr t\u00eb shp\u00ebtuar krijes\u00ebn e vock\u00ebl q\u00eb ul\u00ebrinte dhe po mbytej p\u00ebrpara syve t\u00eb tyre\u201d. \u00cbsht\u00eb fiction i fundit t\u00eb \u2018800 i babait t\u00eb fantazis\u00eb shkencore: George Herbert Wells, i nj\u00ebjti q\u00eb m\u00eb pas do t\u00eb imagjinonte pushtuesit marsian\u00eb t\u00eb sakatuar nga nj\u00eb virus vdekjeprur\u00ebs, atij t\u00eb t\u00eb ftoh\u00ebtit t\u00eb zakonsh\u00ebm. Virus\u00eb, baktere, epidemi jan\u00eb nj\u00eb prej buk\u00ebs s\u00eb zakonshme t\u00eb shkrimtarit. Tregimi i par\u00eb i tij, <em>Bacili i vjedhur<\/em>, trajtonte terrorizmin bakterologjik. Pjesa e cituar n\u00eb fillim \u00ebsht\u00eb nga <em>Makina e koh\u00ebs<\/em>, e vitit 1895. Ka q\u00eb e kan\u00eb quajtur \u201cnj\u00eb distopi demografike\u201d. Imagjinon nj\u00eb t\u00eb ardhme (p\u00ebr hir t\u00eb s\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00ebs shum\u00eb t\u00eb larg\u00ebt: viti n\u00eb t\u00eb cilin transportohet \u201cudh\u00ebtari n\u00eb koh\u00eb\u201d \u00ebsht\u00eb 802701) ku njer\u00ebzimi \u00ebsht\u00eb ndar\u00eb midis delikat\u00ebve, shum\u00eb t\u00eb qytet\u00ebruarve, vegjetarian\u00ebve Eloi, kultor\u00ebve t\u00eb natyr\u00ebs e t\u00eb drit\u00ebs, dhe t\u00eb sh\u00ebmtuarve, mishngr\u00ebn\u00ebsve, fanatik\u00ebve Morlock, kultor\u00eb t\u00eb err\u00ebsir\u00ebs. Distopi demografike: qytet\u00ebrimi i hun\u00ebve po shp\u00ebrb\u00ebhet pasi kan\u00eb humbur interesin tek seksi, prej koh\u00ebrash q\u00eb nuk mbahen mend nuk b\u00ebjn\u00eb m\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb. P\u00ebr sakt\u00ebsi, kan\u00eb humbur interesin edhe ndaj pun\u00ebs, zhvillimit dhe politik\u00ebs. Po zhduken. Jan\u00eb t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn disa shekuj q\u00eb n\u00eb fiction dhe midis studiuesve alternohen kuptime t\u00eb kund\u00ebrta: prej nj\u00eb teprie t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb dhe, n\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt, prej nj\u00eb zvog\u00eblimi t\u00eb tepruar t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb. N\u00eb mes \u00ebsht\u00eb frika m\u00eb e madhe: ajo p\u00ebr k\u00eb do t\u00eb donte t\u00eb b\u00ebnte \u201cinxhinieri t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb\u201d, ta drejtoj\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb sipas mendimit t\u00eb tyre nuk funksionon. \u00cbsht\u00eb ndoshta m\u00eb e justifikuara, jan\u00eb ata q\u00eb kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb gjithmon\u00eb d\u00ebmet m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnda, shpesh t\u00eb pariparueshme. Shiko Kin\u00ebn, ku Mao donte m\u00eb shum\u00eb kinez\u00eb p\u00ebr ta b\u00ebr\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb, t\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitej p\u00ebr nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb mundshme. Tha edhe sikur imperialist\u00ebt amerikan\u00eb, \u201ctigra prej letre\u201d, t\u00eb kishin p\u00ebrdorur atomiken, do t\u00eb mbijetonin gjithmon\u00eb 50 milion dhe m\u00eb pas, me nj\u00eb kthes\u00eb t\u00eb papritur kursi, n\u00eb fundvitet \u201970 n\u00ebn Ten Hsiao Pinin ju ndalua brutalisht kinez\u00ebve t\u00eb mos b\u00ebnin m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 1 f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr \u00e7ift. P\u00ebrjashto p\u00ebr ta ndryshuar kursin edhe nj\u00eb her\u00eb akoma, kur qen\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb rreth 1 miliard e gjysm\u00eb dhe thuajse t\u00eb gjith\u00eb f\u00ebmij t\u00eb vet\u00ebm, por po fillonin t\u00eb zhyteshin n\u00eb gremin\u00eb, me rrezikun q\u00eb t\u00eb mos kishin mjaftuesh\u00ebm t\u00eb rinj p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbajtur shumic\u00ebn q\u00eb po plakej.<\/p>\n<p>Fiction tenton t\u00eb ekzagjeroj\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb zanati i tij, por shpesh ndjek ndjenjat e nj\u00eb epoke m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb shkenc\u00ebs. Shkohet me ulje ngritje marramend\u00ebse, me stomakun n\u00eb fyt, si n\u00eb malet ruse. Dikur ngjallte frik\u00eb mbipopullimi. Mbret\u00ebronte Malthus (i p\u00ebrbuzur nga Marksi). E majta luftonte p\u00ebr ta ndihmuar lindshm\u00ebrin\u00eb. Emile Zola botoi nj\u00eb roman, <em>F\u00e9condit\u00e9, <\/em>ku i kund\u00ebrvinte varf\u00ebris\u00eb dhe shterp\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb kapitalizmit pjellorin\u00eb e klasave pun\u00ebtore. M\u00eb pas, n\u00eb vitet \u201930 t\u00eb \u2018900, mbijetoi frika e uljes s\u00eb popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb Per\u00ebndim (apo, n\u00eb versionin m\u00eb t\u00eb urryer, terroi se mos ia dilnin \u201cracat inferiore\u201d). Shpesh terroret e kund\u00ebrta mbivendosen. I vitit 1953, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb kulmin e baby boom, shp\u00ebrthimit demografik i pasluft\u00ebs, atij t\u00eb gjenerat\u00ebs time, \u00ebsht\u00eb <em>Nes\u00ebr dhe nes\u00ebr dhe nes\u00ebr<\/em>, nj\u00eb tregim i mrekulluesh\u00ebm ku Kurt Vonnegut imagjinon nj\u00eb konflikt t\u00eb shurdh\u00ebr midis gjeneratash, midis patriarkut q\u00eb guxon t\u00eb mos vdes\u00eb (jeta \u00ebsht\u00eb zgjatur shum\u00eb) dhe f\u00ebmij\u00ebve e nip\u00ebrve q\u00eb nuk kan\u00eb m\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb jetuar. N\u00eb vitin 1968 Paul Ehrlich botonte <em>The Population Bomb<\/em>, mbi katastrofa t\u00eb frikshme q\u00eb do t\u00eb prodhoheshin nga mbipopullsia. N\u00eb vitin 1973 pash\u00eb n\u00eb kinema <em>Soylent Green <\/em>me Charlton Heston. Imagjinonte njer\u00ebzimin e detyruar nga tepria e popullsis\u00eb respektivisht resurseve t\u00eb hante kufomat e procesuara n\u00eb form\u00ebn e qullit jeshil. I t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtit vit \u00ebsht\u00eb <em>Fusha e shenjtor\u00ebve <\/em>i Jean Raspail. Imagjinon se n\u00eb nj\u00eb t\u00eb ardhme prej vet\u00ebm 20 vitesh m\u00eb pas (fiction gabon gjithmon\u00eb me datat) 1 milion njer\u00ebz m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt indian\u00eb, t\u00eb udh\u00ebhequr nga nj\u00eb perosnazh i quajtur \u201cKoprofagu\u201d, fut n\u00eb dor\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha anijet n\u00eb portin e Kalkut\u00ebs dhe fillon t\u00eb navigoj\u00eb drejt brigjeve t\u00eb Franc\u00ebs. Vala e par\u00eb e pushtimit \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb ushtri kufomash t\u00eb mbytura q\u00eb mbret\u00ebrojn\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebr plazhe. Midis lexuesve t\u00eb apasionuar q\u00eb rekomandonin leximin e romanit qen\u00eb Marine Le Pen dhe Steve Bannon, k\u00ebshilltari ultr\u00e0 dhe komplotist i Trump. Nuk ke nga luan: e ardhmja luhet mbi demografin\u00eb. \u00cbsht\u00eb komponenti thelb\u00ebsor i kapitalit njer\u00ebzor. Llogaritet se \u00e7do vit m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb mosh\u00ebs mesatare i korresppondon nj\u00eb rreth 4% t\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb t\u00eb ardhur\u00ebs, ashtu si \u00e7do vit m\u00eb shum\u00eb shkolarizim i korrespondojn\u00eb 10 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjesh m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb PBB. Argumenti \u00ebsht\u00eb delikat dhe kompleks. Politika nuk ka arritur kurr\u00eb ta kontrolloj\u00eb demografin\u00eb, bile dumke menduar se mund ta manipuloj\u00eb shpesh ka kombinuar probleme. Qysh kur bota \u00ebsht\u00eb bot\u00eb, kur popullsia zvog\u00eblohet gj\u00ebrat nuk shkojn\u00eb mir\u00eb dhe m\u00eb pas n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi shkojn\u00eb p\u00ebr keq. N\u00eb bib\u00ebl premtimi i Zotit p\u00ebr Abrahamin \u00ebsht\u00eb se trash\u00ebgimtar\u00ebt e tij do t\u00eb shtohen pa kufi.<\/p>\n<p>Rritja apo r\u00ebnia e popullsis\u00eb p\u00ebrkufizojn\u00eb rritjen apo r\u00ebnien e nj\u00eb fuqie t\u00eb madhe, pesha relative e saj respektivisht fuqive t\u00eb tjera dhe i politik\u00ebs s\u00eb saj. \u00cbsht\u00eb nj\u00eb prej faktor\u00ebve dominues n\u00eb dinamikat gjeopolitike. \u201cDemografia e madhe shoq\u00ebrohet me fuqin\u00eb e madhe\u201d, p\u00ebr ta th\u00ebn\u00eb me titullin e nj\u00eb artikulli t\u00eb fundit tek <em>Foreign Affairs <\/em>t\u00eb Nicholas Eberstadt, nj\u00eb prej ekspert\u00ebve t\u00eb m\u00ebdhenj amerikan\u00eb t\u00eb demografis\u00eb. Ka qen\u00eb gjithmon\u00eb k\u00ebshtu, nga dekadenca tek r\u00ebnia e perandorive t\u00eb lashta deri n\u00eb dit\u00ebt tona. Dinasti dhe regjime, edhe regjimet demokratike, shemben n\u00ebse n\u00ebnshtetasit dhe qytetar\u00ebt vdesin si mizat. I ndodhi, si\u00e7 e zbulon nj\u00eb studim i fundit i financuar nga Wellcome Trust e nga European Research Council, edhe Republik\u00ebs s\u00eb Veimarit (<em>A Lesson from history? Worsening Mortality and the rise of the Nazi Party in 1930s Germany<\/em>, sht\u00ebpia botuee Elsevier, 2021). Lufta e Madhe dhe Depresioni i Madh i viteve \u201930 ka qen\u00eb i v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb, por p\u00ebr Gjermanin\u00eb m\u00eb i eg\u00ebr sesa p\u00ebr t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt. Vdiqej nga varf\u00ebria, papun\u00ebsia, infeksionet, s\u00ebmundjet, alkoolizmi, vet\u00ebvrasjet. P\u00ebrfundoi me vdekjen edhe t\u00eb demokracis\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb avancuar n\u00eb Europ\u00eb. Kishte midis viteve 1930 dhe 1933 nj\u00eb korelacion dometh\u00ebn\u00ebs, qytet p\u00ebr qytet, midis koeficent\u00ebve t\u00eb rritur t\u00eb vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb dhe rritjes s\u00eb votave p\u00ebr Partin\u00eb Naziste. \u00c7do 10\/1000 m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb vdekshm\u00ebri i korrespondonte nj\u00eb 6.5% m\u00eb shum\u00eb vota p\u00ebr partin\u00eb e Hitlerit. Lindshm\u00ebria n\u00eb Gjermani ishte n\u00eb r\u00ebnie qysh nga fillimet e \u2018900. Nazist\u00ebt ia atribuan degjenerimit moral t\u00eb futur nga e majta dhe hebrenjt\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>\u00cbsht\u00eb prej pak koh\u00ebsh q\u00eb mbledh <em>horror stories <\/em>mbi shkurtimin e mosh\u00ebs mesatare dhe p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsimit t\u00eb asistenc\u00ebs sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore n\u00eb thuajse t\u00eb gjitha vendet q\u00eb g\u00ebzoheshin me welfare sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor t\u00eb tyre, t\u00eb p\u00ebrparimeve t\u00eb zgjatjes s\u00eb jet\u00ebs dhe t\u00eb cil\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb saj p\u00ebr qytetar\u00ebt e tyre. Edhe n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, prej pak koh\u00ebsh mosha mesatare po shkurtohen, pas jan\u00eb rritur prej vitesh dhe nuk q\u00ebndron vet\u00ebm Covid, incidenti i rrug\u00ebtimit t\u00eb k\u00ebtyre viteve t\u00eb fundit. N\u00eb spitalet nd\u00ebrrohet jet\u00eb si n\u00eb lebroz\u00ebt e lasht\u00eb. Nuk jemi as m\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebqinjt\u00eb n\u00eb Europ\u00eb. Sistemi sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor publik britanik \u00ebsht\u00eb prej koh\u00ebsh n\u00eb kolaps. Britania e Madhe e pasBrexit \u00ebsht\u00eb e fundit e klas\u00ebs. N\u00eb vitin 2022 mosha mesatare ka r\u00ebn\u00eb nga 83.2 vjet q\u00eb do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb pritej n\u00eb rreth 81 vje\u00e7: 700000 t\u00eb vdekur m\u00eb shum\u00eb se ata t\u00eb parashikuar. Shtetet e Bashkuara jan\u00eb shteti q\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb bot\u00eb shpenzon m\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebr sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsin\u00eb, shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr sesa p\u00ebr armatimet. E dija se aty, p\u00ebrkrah ekselenc\u00ebs absolute p\u00ebr ata q\u00eb mund t\u2019ia lejojn\u00eb vetes, fal\u00eb sigurimeve shum\u00eb t\u00eb kushtueshme, dhe nj\u00eb mbulimi pakashum\u00eb t\u00eb garantuar p\u00ebr shum\u00eb t\u00eb varf\u00ebrit, i korrespondon braktisja totale p\u00ebr t\u00eb d\u00ebnuarit e mesit, q\u00eb nuk kan\u00eb as nj\u00ebr\u00ebn dhe as tjetr\u00ebn. M\u00eb jan\u00eb ngritur flok\u00ebt duke lexuar se n\u00eb ndryshim s\u00eb n\u00eb thuajse t\u00eb gjith\u00eb pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb bot\u00ebs, ku koeficent\u00ebt e vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb grave shkakton d\u00ebm kan\u00eb r\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb konstante n\u00eb 20 vje\u00e7arin e fundit, n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara, q\u00eb kan\u00eb tashm\u00eb koeficentin m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb puerperale midis vendeve t\u00eb industrializuara, n\u00eb fakt jan\u00eb rritur.<\/p>\n<p>M\u00eb keq akoma, tek lexoja n\u00eb nj\u00eb studim t\u00eb botuar n\u00eb shkurt nga National Bureau of Economic Research, se n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara jo vet\u00ebm vdekshm\u00ebria f\u00ebminore \u00ebsht\u00eb tejet m\u00eb e lart\u00eb n\u00eb familjet me ngjyr\u00eb respektivisht atyre t\u00eb bardha, por q\u00eb vdesin deri m\u00eb shum\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb n\u00eb familjet m\u00eb t\u00eb pasura sesa n\u00eb familjet e bardha m\u00eb t\u00eb varf\u00ebra dhe kjo teksa n\u00eb 97 vendet m\u00eb pak t\u00eb pasura t\u00eb bot\u00ebs nga 2000 e k\u00ebtej vdekshm\u00ebria f\u00ebminore \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrgjysmuar. Nj\u00eb demograf francez, Emmanuel Todd, ishte b\u00ebr\u00eb i famsh\u00ebm se kishte parashikuar r\u00ebnien e Bashkimit Sovjetik 10 vite p\u00ebrpara se t\u00eb ndodhte, n\u00eb baz\u00ebn e rritjes s\u00eb vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb n\u00ebn regjim. Vazhdon t\u00eb shkoj\u00eb keq n\u00ebn Putinin, pas nj\u00eb periudhe ku dukej se demografikisht Rusia po e merrte veten. Vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb humbasin 1 milion njer\u00ebz n\u00eb vit. Mosha mesatare \u00ebsht\u00eb 10 vite m\u00eb pak se n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, nj\u00eb \u00e7ik\u00eb m\u00eb pak se n\u00eb Haiti. Ka q\u00eb vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb se Rusia mund t\u00eb zbres\u00eb n\u00ebn 100 milion\u00ebt brenda vitit 2050. \u00cbsht\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuese se n\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebhen m\u00eb shum\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb, Putini ka vendosur t\u2019i d\u00ebrgoj\u00eb t\u00eb vdesin n\u00eb luft\u00eb. Ose ndoshta ka nj\u00eb lidhje midis epidemis\u00eb s\u00eb Covid q\u00eb po e ngat\u00ebrron Rusin\u00eb dhe d\u00ebshir\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb pushtuar. E njoftuar nga tavolina shum\u00eb t\u00eb gjata dhe n\u00eb salla t\u00eb pafundme ku bashk\u00ebbiseduesit mbaheshin n\u00eb distanc\u00eb prove virusi nga lideri suprem. Gj\u00ebrat nuk shkojn\u00eb m\u00eb mir\u00eb n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, q\u00eb n\u00eb fillimin e mij\u00ebvje\u00e7arit ishte nj\u00eb nga vendet me r\u00ebnien m\u00eb t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb bot\u00eb dhe q\u00eb ka p\u00ebsuar nj\u00eb arrati t\u00eb madhe, sidomos grash\u00eb dhe t\u00eb rinjsh, nga fillimi i luft\u00ebs. N\u00eb terma t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb tani shkon keq deri edhe p\u00ebr Kin\u00ebn. Jan\u00eb tashm\u00eb shum\u00eb dekada q\u00eb i ka shkuar keq edhe p\u00ebr Japonin, q\u00eb vazhdon t\u00eb plaket. N\u00ebse Afrika fillon ta dyfishoj\u00eb popullsin\u00eb, nga 1.25 miliard n\u00eb 2019 n\u00eb 2.5 miliard n\u00eb 2050, vazhdon t\u00eb shkoj\u00eb keq p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Europ\u00ebn Per\u00ebndimore. M\u00eb keq se t\u00eb gjith\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt p\u00ebr Italin\u00eb. Do t\u00eb ishim deri n\u00eb fyt\u00eb sikur t\u00eb mos ishte p\u00ebr pak emigracion. Ila\u00e7et e r\u00ebndimit t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs demografike nuk kan\u00eb funksionuar gjithmon\u00eb, as n\u00eb Franc\u00eb ku kraktikisht me f\u00ebmij\u00ebn e tret\u00eb nuk paguhen m\u00eb taksa, apo n\u00eb Suedi. \u00cbsht\u00eb e pakuptueshme pasi tema e inkurajimit t\u00eb lindjeve nuk ngrihen m\u00eb nga e majta, i lihet s\u00eb djatht\u00ebs.<\/p>\n<p>Kina ka kuptuar me tmerr se brenda k\u00ebtij shekulli, jo n\u00eb nj\u00eb t\u00eb ardhme fantastikoshkencore, mund ta shikoj\u00eb t\u00eb reduktohet me m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 500 milion, 1\/3 e aktuales. \u00cbsht\u00eb nj\u00eb projektim i Akademis\u00eb s\u00eb Shkencave t\u00eb Shanghait, i ngritur mbi nj\u00eb reduktim prej 1.1% n\u00eb vit. L\u00ebvizjet e demografis\u00eb mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb pabesueshm\u00ebrisht t\u00eb shpejta. Nuk kishte ndodhur kurr\u00eb q\u00eb nj\u00eb vend t\u00eb plakej kaq shpejt. Pik\u00ebrisht n\u00eb k\u00ebto dit\u00eb Kina \u00ebsht\u00eb tejkaluar nga India n\u00eb popullsi. Vitin e kaluar kan\u00eb vdekur 10.41 milion kinez\u00eb, kan\u00eb lindur 9.56 milion. \u00cbsht\u00eb hera e par\u00eb q\u00eb ndodh, nga vitet e falimentimit t\u00eb Hopit t\u00eb Madh (1959 \u2013 1960) q\u00eb la nj\u00eb vrim\u00eb demografike t\u00eb frikshme, me dhjet\u00ebra milion njer\u00ebz. Po, ka qen\u00eb n\u00eb mes Covid, por jan\u00eb 6 vite radhazi q\u00eb lindjet zvog\u00eblohen. Kan\u00eb kuptuar se me politik\u00ebn drakoniane t\u00eb \u201cf\u00ebmij\u00ebs s\u00eb vet\u00ebm\u201d e kishin ekzagjeruar. \u201cT\u00eb qeveris\u00ebsh nj\u00eb shtet t\u00eb madh \u00ebsht\u00eb si t\u00eb gatuash peshq t\u00eb vegj\u00ebl: t\u00eb gatuash shum\u00eb ose shum\u00eb pak prish pjat\u00ebn\u201d, paralajm\u00ebronte mij\u00ebvje\u00e7ar\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb <em>Daodejing<\/em>. Kan\u00eb k\u00ebrkuar ta riparojn\u00eb: fillimisht lejojn\u00eb nj\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb t\u00eb dyt\u00eb, tani t\u00eb tret\u00eb (praktikisht sa f\u00ebmij\u00eb t\u00eb duash), por nuk ju imponohet njer\u00ebzve t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb me kamzhik kok\u00ebs. \u00cbsht\u00eb e kuptueshme se ankthi e bln n\u00eb fund Xi Jinping ta trash\u00eb z\u00ebrin. Nj\u00eb Kin\u00eb q\u00eb b\u00ebn fundin demografik t\u00eb Japonis\u00eb, Europ\u00ebs dhe Rusis\u00eb, me stanjacionin aneks ekonomik, \u00ebsht\u00eb makthi i saj m\u00eb i keq. Mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb fundi p\u00ebr dinastin\u00eb e fundit t\u00eb perandoris\u00eb kineze, asaj t\u00eb Partis\u00eb Komuniste. Pa llogaritur se e b\u00ebn t\u00eb pamundur pushtimin e Taivanit me forc\u00eb: as nj\u00eb diktatur\u00eb nuk mund t\u2019i lejoj\u00eb vetes t\u00eb d\u00ebrgoj\u00eb t\u00eb vdesin nj\u00eb gjenerat\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00ebsh t\u00eb vet\u00ebm.<\/p>\n<p>Vet\u00ebm Amerika ende ia hedh paq. Censimenti i 2020 ka konfirmuar se rritja e popullsis\u00eb ka vazhduar t\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsohet nga vitet \u201890 e k\u00ebtej, \u00ebsht\u00eb me ritmin m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt t\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha koh\u00ebrave, me p\u00ebrjashtim t\u00eb Depresionit t\u00eb Madh t\u00eb viteve \u201930, por duhet t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb rritet m\u00eb me shpejt\u00ebsi nga mestarja e pjes\u00ebs tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb bot\u00ebs t\u00eb pakten deri n\u00eb mesin e shekullit. Do t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb nga k\u00ebtu deri n\u00eb 2040 t\u00eb ken\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb lindje se vdekje dhe ajo q\u00eb vlen edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb, ta rris\u00eb popullsin\u00eb n\u00eb mosh\u00eb pune respektivisht pleqve. \u00cbsht\u00eb nj\u00eb prej shpjegimeve se pse Amerika vazhdon t\u00eb rritet e pac\u00ebnuar nga kriza n\u00eb kriz\u00eb. Optimizmi, besimi tek e ardhmja sigurisht q\u00eb jan\u00eb pjes\u00eb e k\u00ebtij aspekti t\u00eb \u201ceksepsionalizmit\u201d amerikan. 41% e amerikan\u00ebve mbetet e bindur se numri ideal i f\u00ebmij\u00ebve \u00ebsht\u00eb 3. Koeficenti i lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb vazhdon t\u00eb jet\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonisht e lart\u00eb respektivisht vendeve t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb pasur. \u00cbsht\u00eb l\u00ebkundur vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb her\u00eb: gjat\u00eb dhe menj\u00ebher\u00eb m\u00eb pas luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Vietnam. Elementi vendimtar ka mund\u00ebsi q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb demografia. Duhet t\u00eb falenderojn\u00eb sidomos emigrant\u00ebt. Jo vet\u00ebm emigracioni historik q\u00eb nga 23 milion\u00ebt q\u00eb ishin n\u00eb 1850 i ka \u00e7uar n\u00eb 330 milion\u00ebt e sot\u00ebm dhe i ka b\u00ebr\u00eb fuqin\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe bot\u00ebrore. Shtetet e Bashkuara midis viteve 1950 e 2015 kan\u00eb mikpritur 50 milion emigrant\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb. Pa ilegal\u00ebt dhe klandestin\u00ebt, q\u00eb Trump do t\u00eb donte t\u2019i mbante larg nga Muri, do t\u00eb kishin murtaj\u00ebn. Vler\u00ebsohet se pavar\u00ebsisht r\u00ebnikimeve, do t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb mikpriten n\u00eb vitet n\u00eb vazhdom t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 1 milion emigrant\u00eb n\u00eb vit. Nuk do ta b\u00ebnin, do t\u00eb ishin t\u00eb mbaruar. <em>It\u2019s the Economy, Stupid!<\/em>, paralajm\u00ebronte Bill Clinton. <em>No, it\u2019s\u00a0 Demography, stupid!<\/em><\/p>\n<p>(Sigmund Ginzberg p\u00ebr <em>Il Foglio<\/em>)<\/p>\n<p><strong>P\u00ebrgatiti<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>ARMIN TIRANA<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nga Kina tek Rusia tek Europa, distopit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebqija demografike b\u00ebhen realitet. Vet\u00ebm Amerika shp\u00ebton. \u201cRryma ishte e shpejt\u00eb, por jo aq e fort\u00eb as p\u00ebr nj\u00eb notar joekspert. Mund t\u00eb krijoni nj\u00eb ide p\u00ebr \u00e7udin\u00eb e k\u00ebtyre njer\u00ebzve, kur do ju them as asnj\u00ebri prej tyre as nuk e vrau mendjen m\u00eb s\u00eb &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":42645,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-kulture"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42644","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42644"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42644\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/42645"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42644"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42644"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42644"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}