\u00c7\u00ebshtja demografike prek thelbin dhe vet\u00ebdijen e \u00e7do shoq\u00ebrie. N\u00ebse zakonisht t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat me karakter ekonomiko \u2013 social jan\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira p\u00ebr t\u2019u kontekstualizuar e interpretuar dhe, p\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb, t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira p\u00ebr t\u2019u komunikuar, ato q\u00eb kan\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb me lindje, vdekje, rritje apo r\u00ebnie t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb jan\u00eb me impakt t\u00eb menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm, pasi godasin imagjinat\u00ebn e komunitetit komb\u00ebtar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb thjesht\u00eb dhe t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb \u2013 nga ana tjet\u00ebr vet\u00eb termi \u201ckomb\u201d ka si etim\u00eb \u201clindjen\u201d. N\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb thjesht\u00eb dhe t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb, si n\u00eb nj\u00eb lloj olimpiade sociale, mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrjetohen nga simbol i r\u00ebnies apo i suksesit, prapambetjes apo p\u00ebrparimit, duke prekur ndjenja dhe ide q\u00eb i kan\u00eb rr\u00ebnj\u00ebt n\u00eb historin\u00eb dhe n\u00eb psikologjin\u00eb kolektive.<\/p>\n
Pik\u00ebrisht p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb, ideja e planifikimit t\u00eb lindjeve shpesh \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00e7iftuar me politik\u00ebn nacionaliste t\u00eb diktaturave t\u00eb prirura ndaj fryrjes s\u00eb krenaris\u00eb patriotike n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet krahasimesh sasiore apo cil\u00ebsore. \u201cNumri \u00ebsht\u00eb fuqi\u201d, thoshte Benito Mussolini, i impenjuar n\u00eb bindjen e italian\u00ebve q\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebnin m\u00eb shum\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb \u2013 q\u00eb t\u00eb mund t\u00eb kishte m\u00eb shum\u00eb ushtar\u00eb n\u00eb dispozicion t\u00eb synimeve t\u00eb tij imperialiste. Megjith\u00ebse politikat demografike t\u00eb fashizmit mbesin mjaft t\u00eb ankoruara n\u00eb kujtes\u00ebn italiane, edhe pse t\u00eb shoq\u00ebruara nga nj\u00eb galeri e gjer\u00eb imazhesh simbolike, si premiot p\u00ebr familjet e m\u00ebdha n\u00eb num\u00ebr dhe bekimet e Du\u00e7es ndaj n\u00ebnave q\u00eb lindnin m\u00eb shum\u00eb, numrat certifikojn\u00eb se ato politika d\u00ebshtuan: koeficienti lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb vazhdoi t\u00eb zbres\u00eb gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb koh\u00ebzgjatjes s\u00eb Nj\u00ebzetvje\u00e7arit, nga nj\u00eb mesatare prej 3.75 f\u00ebmij\u00ebsh p\u00ebr grua n\u00eb 1925 n\u00eb 3 n\u00eb 1940. Politika demografike e fashizmit p\u00ebrfundoi n\u00eb nj\u00eb fllusk\u00eb sapuni, ashtu si ajo antropologjike q\u00eb do t\u00eb kishte dashur tranformimin nga abulik, t\u00eb shp\u00ebrq\u00ebndruar dhe cinik (ashtu si\u00e7 e shihnin) popullint italian n\u00eb nj\u00eb rac\u00eb luft\u00ebtar\u00ebsh t\u00eb etur me nofullat e kuadruara t\u00eb gatsh\u00ebm t\u00eb rrokinin pushk\u00ebt p\u00ebr t\u2019i ofruar Italis\u00eb \u201cvendin n\u00eb diell\u201d t\u00eb saj. Gjith\u00e7ka p\u00ebr t\u00eb riprovuar pamund\u00ebsin\u00eb e veprimit me instrumenta t\u00eb nj\u00eb narracioni politik sip\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsor mbi motivet komplekse e t\u00eb thella t\u00eb sjelljeve njer\u00ebzore.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb vitet \u201860, diktatori rumun Nikolae \u00c7aushesku, i bindur se lindnin pak f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb liris\u00eb s\u00eb tepruar t\u00eb grave, lan\u00e7oi nj\u00eb program p\u00ebr rritjen e popullsis\u00eb komb\u00ebtare me 7 milion, \u201cprogram\u201d q\u00eb n\u00eb mendjen e \u00c7ausheskut n\u00ebnkuptonte ndalimin e abortit dhe t\u00eb kontraceptiv\u00ebve, kontroll gjinekologjik mujor t\u00eb detyruar me q\u00ebllim t\u00eb regjistrimit t\u00eb \u00e7do shtatzan\u00ebsie, prani e policis\u00eb sekrete n\u00ebp\u00ebr spitale, ekzaltim i rolit t\u00eb gruas si n\u00ebn\u00eb e shum\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00ebve. Lindshm\u00ebria, pas nj\u00eb rritjeje fillestare, rifilloi megjithat\u00eb t\u00eb bjer\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb pandalshme; efekti kryesor i dekreteve fam\u00ebk\u00ebqinj \u00c7aushesku qe nj\u00eb num\u00ebr i pabesuesh\u00ebm t\u00eb sapolindurisht t\u00eb braktisur dhe grash\u00eb t\u00eb vdekura (rreth 10000) prej abortit klandestin duke tentuar t\u2019i shmangej detyrimeve t\u00eb sanksionuara nga shteti \u2013 detyrime t\u00eb abroguara vet\u00ebm pasi diktatori u ekzekutua n\u00eb 1989.<\/p>\n
S\u00eb fundi, midis shembujve t\u00eb demografis\u00eb s\u00eb planifikuar, spikat politika \u201ccil\u00ebsore\u201d e nazizmit n\u00eb Gjermani e n\u00eb territoret e pushtuara prej saj deri n\u00eb 1945, q\u00eb konsiston n\u00eb eliminimin fizik t\u00eb element\u00ebve njer\u00ebzor\u00eb dhe sociale t\u00eb konsideruara t\u00eb pad\u00ebshiruesh\u00ebm dhe n\u00eb d\u00ebrgimin, tek ata t\u00eb par\u00eb si t\u00eb sh\u00ebndosh\u00eb, q\u00eb t\u00eb riprodhoheshin sa m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb ishte e mundur me q\u00ebllim fark\u00ebtimin e nj\u00eb race superiore. Nj\u00eb prej njollave m\u00eb t\u00eb err\u00ebta t\u00eb historis\u00eb europiane, e fshir\u00eb vet\u00ebm nga humbja gjermane n\u00eb Luft\u00ebn e Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, por edhe n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast nga vdekja e ideuesve t\u00eb saj.<\/p>\n
Ndoshta edhe p\u00ebr faj t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj kazistike t\u00eb turpshme dhe t\u00eb sikletshme vendet e Per\u00ebndimit liberal \u2013 demografik i kan\u00eb rezistuar gjithmon\u00eb marrjes direkt me demografi. Edhe pse, n\u00eb dekadat e para t\u00eb pasluft\u00ebs, dukej se b\u00ebhej fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb joproblem: koeficienti i lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb zbriste, ama duke q\u00ebndruar n\u00eb nivele m\u00eb t\u00eb larta se 2 f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr grua dhe gjenerata e \u201cBoomer<\/em>\u201d hynte n\u00eb mosh\u00eb riprodhuese duke ju siguruar k\u00ebtyre shoq\u00ebrive forca dhe ide t\u00eb reja q\u00eb do t\u00eb gjeneronin ndryshime epokale midis viteve \u201950 dhe atyre t\u00eb \u201970, duke forcuar p\u00ebrshtypjen se nj\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimi konstant social. Rritja substanciale e emigracionit nga vitet \u201980 mund\u00ebsoi pastaj t\u00eb fshihte se numri mesatar i f\u00ebmij\u00ebve p\u00ebr grua kishte zbritur tashm\u00eb shum\u00eb posht\u00eb pragut prej 2.1, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb i asaj q\u00eb garanton ndryshimin gjeneracional. Qe vet\u00ebm nga vitet 2000 dhe sidomos nga kriza ekonomike e 2008, q\u00eb e dh\u00ebna demografike u b\u00eb e pamundur p\u00ebr t\u2019u injoruar dhe bile shum\u00eb problematike p\u00ebr nj\u00eb num\u00ebr gjithnj\u00eb e n\u00eb rritje vendesh europiane, anglosaksone dhe i Azis\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb \u201coksidentalizuar\u201d.<\/p>\n P\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb i konsideruar nj\u00eb episod r\u00ebnieje demografike thuajse folkloristike deri nga qeveritar\u00ebt e saj, rasti i Japonis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb ndoshta m\u00eb emblematiku i k\u00ebtij evolucioni. Nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb euforin\u00eb e viteve 2000 ekspert\u00ebt vendor\u00eb parashikonin se do t\u00eb duheshin ende nja 30 vjet p\u00ebrpara se plakja e popullsis\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebhej nj\u00eb emergjenc\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa kolos\u00ebt teknologjik\u00eb japonez\u00eb projektonin robot\u00eb simpatik\u00eb q\u00eb do t\u00eb ishin t\u00eb aft\u00eb t\u00eb kujdeseshin t\u00eb kujdeseshin t\u00eb moshuar jo t\u00eb vet\u00ebmbajtur, n\u00eb diskutimin e mbajtur p\u00ebr Vitin e Ri t\u00eb 2023 kryeministri Kishida Fumio ka pranuar se t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat demografike kan\u00eb arritur n\u00eb limitin e mosruajtjes s\u00eb nj\u00eb shoq\u00ebrie funksionuese.<\/p>\n N\u00eb 2022 n\u00eb Japoni lindjet kan\u00eb qen\u00eb 799000 dhe vdekjet mbi 1 milion e gjys\u00ebm, por situata japoneze \u00ebsht\u00eb r\u00ebnduar \u2013 p\u00ebr shembull n\u00eb rastin italian, spanjoll apo gjerman, q\u00eb statistikisht mund t\u00eb asimilohen \u2013 nga mungesa thuajse totale e emigrant\u00ebve q\u00eb mund t\u00eb rimbushin trupat gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb rralluara t\u00eb klasave anagrafike n\u00eb mosh\u00eb pune. Politika dhe shoq\u00ebria japoneze jan\u00eb gjithmon\u00eb ngurruese dhe shum\u00eb rezistente ndaj hyrjes s\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme t\u00eb t\u00eb huajve n\u00eb territorin komb\u00ebtar dhe zgjidhjet e propozuara nga qeveria n\u00eb momentin ezaurohen n\u00eb stimuj ekonomik\u00eb ndaj lindjeve, n\u00eb rritjen e mosh\u00ebs s\u00eb pensionueshme ndaj t\u00eb 70 vje\u00e7\u00ebve dhe apelit me pun\u00ebn, p\u00ebr momentin part-time<\/em>, t\u00eb t\u00eb moshuarve ende t\u00eb aft\u00eb.<\/p>\n Edhe n\u00eb merit\u00ebn e nj\u00eb gjykimi merite mbi masa t\u00eb tilla \u00ebsht\u00eb e leht\u00eb t\u00eb parashikohet q\u00eb ky lloj ila\u00e7esh do t\u00eb rezultoj\u00eb i pamjaftuesh\u00ebm, i vet\u00ebm. Ajo q\u00eb pengon lindshm\u00ebrin\u00eb n\u00eb Japoni \u00ebsht\u00eb kostoja e jetes\u00ebs, kostoja e banimit, kostoja e sh\u00ebrbimeve t\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00ebris\u00eb (nd\u00ebr m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00ebt n\u00eb bot\u00eb). Si n\u00eb shum\u00eb vende t\u00eb tjera per\u00ebndimore, rritja e pasuris\u00eb s\u00eb prodhuar ka mbetur e q\u00ebndrueshme n\u00eb dekadat e fundit \u2013 por jo shp\u00ebrndarjen e saj, gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb e pabarabart\u00eb: e ardhura mesatare reale e nj\u00eb familjeje ka zbritur nga 50000 dollar\u00ebt e 1995 n\u00eb 43000 aktual\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa perspektivat e l\u00ebvizshm\u00ebris\u00eb p\u00ebr lart jan\u00eb zbutur, n\u00eb nj\u00eb vend tashm\u00eb n\u00eb vet\u00ebvete \u00ebsht\u00eb karakterizuar nga nj\u00eb shoq\u00ebri e hierarkizuar ekonomikisht dhe anagrafikisht, n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn impenjimi i k\u00ebrkuar ndaj pun\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb i rrept\u00eb sa jo totalizues. T\u00eb gjith\u00eb k\u00ebta element\u00eb ndikojn\u00eb me forc\u00eb mbi zgjedhjet e lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb. Ve\u00e7 k\u00ebsaj, prej munges\u00ebs s\u00eb t\u00eb drejtave t\u00eb mjaftuehsme ekonomike dhe sociale t\u00eb synuara p\u00ebr t\u00eb garantuar nj\u00eb liri efektive t\u00eb zgjedhjes s\u00eb gruas, evolucionit t\u00eb modeleve familjare dhe t\u00eb kushtit fem\u00ebror ka p\u00ebrfunduar duke e r\u00ebnduar r\u00ebnien dmeografike, duke qen\u00eb se alternativa midis m\u00ebm\u00ebsis\u00eb apo karrier\u00ebs (apo nj\u00eb m\u00ebm\u00ebsi t\u00eb \u201ckufizuar\u201d) \u00ebsht\u00eb kusht\u00ebzuese dramatikisht. Me pak fjal\u00eb, b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr faktor\u00eb strukturor\u00eb, jo t\u00eb huaj ndaj shum\u00eb rajoneve t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb bot\u00ebs s\u00eb \u201czhvilluar\u201d.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb dinamik\u00eb e ngjashme mund t\u00eb haset n\u00eb Koren\u00eb e Jugut fqinje: n\u00eb dukjen m\u00eb pak t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00eb \u2013 pasi deri n\u00eb vitet \u201980 n\u00eb vend regjistroheshin p\u00ebrqindje lindshm\u00ebrie jasht\u00ebzakonisht t\u00eb larta p\u00ebr nj\u00eb ekonomi t\u00eb zhvilluar \u2013 por n\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsim galopant. Koreja e Jugut sh\u00ebnon n\u00eb fakt sot p\u00ebrqindjet e lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb ulta t\u00eb bot\u00ebs, me nj\u00eb num\u00ebr mesatar f\u00ebmij\u00ebsh p\u00ebr f\u00ebmij\u00ebt p\u00ebr grua n\u00eb 2022 baraz me 0.78 (Itali 1.24; Japonia 1.34; Gjermania 1.6). qeveria jugkoreane ka futur stimuj ekonomik\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb forta p\u00ebr ta p\u00ebrmbysur tendenc\u00ebn: deri m\u00eb tani nuk ka dh\u00ebn\u00eb asnj\u00ebra rezultatet e shpresuara. Aq sa p\u00ebr ta shtyr\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr dik\u00eb t\u00eb flas\u00eb p\u00ebr hapjet e ndrojtura ndaj emigracionit\u00a0 \u2013 ide q\u00eb n\u00eb shoq\u00ebrin\u00eb koreane ka t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin efekt q\u00eb n\u00eb at\u00eb japoneze, por q\u00eb paradoksalisht do t\u00eb ishte tamponi m\u00eb i shpejt\u00eb ndaj nj\u00eb situate v\u00ebrtet e pamb\u00ebshtetshme. Politika ka shtyr\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb zgjidhje tjet\u00ebr: n\u00eb Seul vet\u00ebm 5 vite m\u00eb par\u00eb ka kaluar nj\u00eb ligj q\u00eb kufizonte pun\u00ebn e p\u00ebrjavshme ligjore n\u00eb 52 or\u00eb (40 plus maksimumi prej 12 or\u00ebsh t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme), pik\u00ebrisht tani e reformuar duke e ngritur limitin e p\u00ebrjavsh\u00ebm n\u00eb 69 or\u00eb: t\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto or\u00eb ekstra, thot\u00eb ekzekutivi i Yoon Suk-yeol, duhet t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrq\u00ebndruar n\u00eb disa periudha t\u00eb vitit dhe do t\u2019u kthehen m\u00eb pas punonj\u00ebsve t\u00eb varur n\u00eb form\u00ebn e koh\u00ebs s\u00eb lir\u00eb \u201cn\u00eb stin\u00eb t\u00eb tjera\u201d, duke i shtyr\u00eb k\u00ebshtu t\u00eb ken\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb. \u201cPo na \u00e7oni n\u00eb zhdukje\u201d, i \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjur opozita.<\/p>\n T\u00eb dy rastet \u201cekstreme\u201d aziatike n\u00ebnvizojn\u00eb nj\u00eb paradoks tjet\u00ebr mjaft preokupues p\u00ebr Per\u00ebndimin dhe kjo teksa n\u00eb procesin historim afatgjat\u00eb fillimi i r\u00ebnies s\u00eb lindshm\u00ebrive sh\u00ebnon nj\u00eb lpvizje progresi, ku shoq\u00ebria \u00e7lirohet nga detyrimi p\u00ebr t\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb shum\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb q\u00eb ta garantoj\u00eb vijueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb dhe mbijetes\u00ebn e vet n\u00eb struktur\u00eb ekonomike autoritare dhe t\u00eb bllokuar, megjithat\u00eb e \u201cp\u00ebsuar\u201d, nga ana tjet\u00ebr r\u00ebndimi i tepruar i k\u00ebsaj tendence demonstron mosmbajtjen e premtimit t\u00eb liris\u00eb individuale dhe mir\u00ebqenien socio \u2013 ekonomike t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsuar. Zgjedhja e moslindshm\u00ebris\u00eb pushon pra s\u00eb q\u00ebni nj\u00eb zgjedhje, p\u00ebr t\u00eb r\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb fakt n\u00eb kategorin\u00eb e \u201cdetyrimit t\u00eb faktit\u201d, dhe kjo p\u00ebr fasha sociale shum\u00eb substanciale. N\u00eb nj\u00eb nivel t\u00eb till\u00eb sa p\u00ebr t\u00eb mos siguruar vijueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e shoq\u00ebris\u00eb.<\/p>\n T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat q\u00eb kan\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb me Europ\u00ebn fotografojn\u00eb nj\u00eb tendenc\u00eb plot hije. E tronditur m\u00eb shum\u00eb se Shtetet e Bashkuara nga kriza ekonomike e 2008 q\u00eb i zbuloi kontradiktat dhe i vuri n\u00eb diskutim vet\u00eb struktur\u00ebn politike t\u00eb saj. E goditur si pjesa tjet\u00ebr e bot\u00ebs nga pandemia dhe nga pasojak sociale, ekonomike dhe psikologjike t\u00eb saj. Teat\u00ebr sot i nj\u00eb lufte shkat\u00ebrrimtare nga e cila nuk shikohet asnj\u00eb fund i mundsh\u00ebm n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn afatshkurt\u00ebr. Vendet e vetme q\u00eb tregojn\u00eb sinjale sh\u00ebndeti demografik, me nj\u00eb num\u00ebr mesatar f\u00ebmij\u00ebsh p\u00ebr grua n\u00eb rritje gjat\u00eb dekad\u00ebs s\u00eb fundit, jan\u00eb Polonia, Hungaria dhe Rumania \u2013 vende ku \u00ebsht\u00eb delokalizuar n\u00eb dekadat e fundit nj\u00eb kuot\u00eb substanciale e industris\u00eb europiane per\u00ebndimore. Brenda eurozon\u00ebs, rasti i vet\u00ebm i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm i evolucionit pozitiv \u2013 fal\u00eb nj\u00eb kompleksi masash strukturore t\u00eb futura gjat\u00eb mandateve Merkel \u2013 \u00ebsht\u00eb ai i Gjermanis\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa Mbret\u00ebria e Bashkuara tejkalon vit pas viti minimumet historike t\u00eb saj, ruan nj\u00eb primat kontinental dhe p\u00ebr t\u2019u pasur zili Franca, pavar\u00ebsisht protestave sociale masive t\u00eb viteve t\u00eb fundit (apo ndoshta pik\u00ebrisht vet\u00ebm fal\u00eb k\u00ebtyre?), me nj\u00eb num\u00ebr mesatar f\u00ebmij\u00ebsh p\u00ebr grua shum\u00eb af\u00ebr (1.85) me pik\u00ebn e k\u00ebmbimit gjeneracional dhe me nj\u00eb kuot\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme hyrjesh t\u00eb reja vjetore nga jasht\u00eb, q\u00eb i mund\u00ebsojn\u00eb t\u00eb regjistrojn\u00eb rritje popullsie relativisht konsistente.<\/p>\n Europa jugore mbyll hidhur klasifikimin me p\u00ebrqindjet e lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta absolutisht, midis 1.1 dhe 1.4 f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr grua n\u00eb Portugali, Spanj\u00eb, Itali, Greqi, Qipro. Pasoja imediate jan\u00eb plakja, shpopullimi, rritje e shpenzimeve publike, konservatoriz\u00ebm social, jan\u00eb konsoliduar nga nj\u00eb emigracion m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt respektivisht me pjes\u00ebn qendro \u2013 veriore t\u00eb kontinentit (edhe sikur Spanja i m\u00ebshon me m\u00eb shum\u00eb sukses \u201cserbatorit\u201d t\u00eb saj kulturalisht t\u00eb af\u00ebrt latino \u2013 amerikan), q\u00eb nuk lejon t\u00eb zbutet deficiti komb\u00ebtar dhe i jep nj\u00eb emigracioni konstant t\u00eb nj\u00eb pjese t\u00eb krahut t\u00eb pun\u00ebs (shpesh e mir\u00ebformuar) q\u00eb gjen pak larg rroga, sh\u00ebrbime dhe mund\u00ebsi karriere m\u00eb t\u00eb mira.<\/p>\n R\u00ebnia demografike q\u00eb po shpopullon bregun verior t\u00eb Mesdheut ting\u00ebllon n\u00eb fakt kur ndodh pprgjat\u00eb bregut veriafrikan: Marok, Algjeri, Tunizi, Libi dhe Egjipt e kan\u00eb par\u00eb popullsin\u00eb e tyre n\u00eb rreth dyfishimin n\u00eb harkun e 35 viteve t\u00eb fundit \u2013 p\u00ebr sakt\u00ebsi nj\u00eb proces q\u00eb ka \u00e7uar, pik\u00ebrisht si n\u00eb Europ\u00ebn e pasluft\u00ebs, n\u00eb ndryshime kulturore t\u00eb thella q\u00eb kan\u00eb prekur struktura politike dhe fetare historikisht thuajse t\u00eb pal\u00ebvizshme, prov\u00eb i jan\u00eb pranverat arabe t\u00eb shp\u00ebrthyera n\u00eb 2011, por edhe laicizimi i pandalsh\u00ebm i rinis\u00eb s\u00eb k\u00ebtyre vendeve, por kan\u00eb \u00e7uar edhe n\u00eb probleme sociale shum\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnda papun\u00ebsie dhe urbanizimi t\u00eb pakontrolluar. N\u00eb nj\u00eb Europ\u00eb ku \u2013 si n\u00eb Japoni dhe Kore t\u00eb Jugut \u2013 krahu i pun\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb kuot\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb e vog\u00ebl e popullsis\u00eb, gj\u00eb q\u00eb p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi ekonomike p\u00ebr k\u00eb transferohet, duke par\u00eb q\u00eb rrall\u00ebsia e pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve duhet t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtes\u00eb rrogat (p\u00ebrve\u00e7se t\u00eb rris\u00eb \u00e7mimet), \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm logjike t\u00eb pres\u00ebsh nj\u00eb rrug\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb konsistente personash nga jugu n\u00eb veriun e Mesdheut n\u00eb dekadat e ardhshme.<\/p>\n \u00cbsht\u00eb pik\u00ebrisht emigracioni nga tjet\u00ebrkund q\u00eb garanton sh\u00ebndetin demografik e Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara, p\u00ebrjashtim i v\u00ebrtet\u00eb dhe konsistent n\u00eb panoram\u00ebn per\u00ebndimore \u2013 bashk\u00eb me \u201ctokat e ardhjes\u201d tradicionale t\u00eb tjera si Kanadaja dhe Australia. Kuadri amerikan \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb qart\u00ebsi \u2013 err\u00ebsir\u00eb, pasi n\u00ebse numri mesatar i f\u00ebmij\u00ebve p\u00ebr grua i mbbetur n\u00eb rreth 2 p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb 20 vje\u00e7arin 1990 \u2013 2010, gj\u00eb q\u00eb i b\u00ebnte Shtetet e Bashkuara demografikisht t\u00eb vet\u00ebmjaftueshme edhe pavar\u00ebsisht emigracionit, t\u00eb fundit e kan\u00eb par\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb t\u00eb bjer\u00eb n\u00eb rreth 1.7, por edhe mosha mesatare e jetes\u00ebs ka pushuar s\u00eb rrituri, qysh nga 2010, duke u stabilizuar rreth 78 vje\u00e7\u00ebve, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb thuajse 3 vjet m\u00eb pak se mesatarja europiane: nj\u00eb e dh\u00ebn\u00eb e p\u00ebrgjithshme q\u00eb fsheh nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb mjaft preokupuese n\u00eb fashat e popullsis\u00eb dhe n\u00eb zonat gjeografike m\u00eb t\u00eb brishta \u2013 dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb se prania e nj\u00eb problemi t\u00eb till\u00eb t\u00eb thell\u00eb social luan nj\u00eb rol jo indiferent n\u00eb shpjegimin e polarizimit politik \u201cekstrem\u201d.<\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, fal\u00eb emigracionit, banor\u00ebt e Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara jan\u00eb rritur me 50 milion n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn q\u00eb shkon nga kalimi i Mj\u00ebvje\u00e7arit n\u00eb ardhjen e Covid, nga 281 n\u00eb 331 milion \u2013 nd\u00ebrsa ata t\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb kontinentit europian kan\u00eb kaluar n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin hark kohor nga 725 n\u00eb 747 milion. \u00cbsht\u00eb k\u00ebtu rasti p\u00ebr t\u00eb v\u00ebrejtur, p\u00ebr t\u2019i v\u00ebn\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e Per\u00ebndimit n\u00eb nj\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie korrekte me pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb planetit, se shifra prej 700 milion i korrespondon edhe numrit t\u00eb qytetar\u00ebve indian\u00eb me m\u00eb pak se 25 vje\u00e7. Megjithat\u00eb, n\u00eb 2017, 14% e banor\u00ebve n\u00eb truallin amerikan kishte lindur n\u00eb nj\u00eb vend tjet\u00ebr: nj\u00eb emigracion q\u00eb u intereson paksa t\u00eb gjitha aspekteve t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb, por q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb vendimtare, n\u00eb pozicionet e saj formuese drejtuese, p\u00ebr t\u2019u garantuar Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara superioritetin tekniko \u2013 shkencor global q\u00eb e vetme popullsia autoktone nuk do ta siguronte.<\/p>\n Demografia \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje p\u00ebr nj\u00eb Per\u00ebndim ku narrativa politike, ekonomike dhe kulturore \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb pak neutrale se kurr\u00eb dhe q\u00eb do t\u00eb donte pik\u00ebr referimi pozitive t\u00eb bot\u00ebs. At\u00ebhere pse kush jeton nuk b\u00ebn f\u00ebmij\u00eb? K\u00ebtu duhet sqaruar se problemi i r\u00ebnies demografike nuk ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb aspak vet\u00ebm me Per\u00ebndimin apo me vendet me sistem liberal \u2013 demokratik: Kina \u00ebsht\u00eb e z\u00ebn\u00eb me nj\u00eb tendenc\u00eb t\u00eb ngjashme, nd\u00ebrsa p\u00ebrgjigja drakoniane me t\u00eb cil\u00ebn mbipopullimi i viteve \u2018900 \u00ebsht\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtuar (e ashtuquajtura \u201cpolitik\u00eb e f\u00ebmij\u00ebs s\u00eb vet\u00ebm\u201d e periudh\u00ebs 1980 \u2013 2013) dhe hapjet aktuale (flitet p\u00ebr t\u2019u lejuar grave kineze t\u00eb riprodhohen deri n\u00eb 3 her\u00eb) kan\u00eb ofruar vetm prov\u00ebn e radh\u00ebs s\u00ebl iracionalitetit krudo dhe t\u00eb falsitetit brutal t\u00eb politikave demografike t\u00eb futura me autoritet n\u00eb korpusin social.<\/p>\n Pasi ka shmangur kriz\u00ebn e r\u00ebnd\u00eb t\u00eb viteve menj\u00ebher\u00eb pas r\u00ebnies s\u00eb Bashkimit Sovjetik q\u00eb t\u00eb mund ta \u00e7onin n\u00eb shp\u00ebrb\u00ebrje, Rusia i ka p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsuar t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat demografike t\u00eb saj, por pa arritur t\u2019i fus\u00eb n\u00eb territor t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetsh\u00ebm \u2013 ka humbur 3 milion banor\u00eb n\u00eb 20 vitet e fundit dhe vazhdon t\u2019i humbas\u00eb. M\u00eb shum\u00eb sesa efekti i sanksioneve apo v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsit\u00eb e tekstur\u00ebs industriale mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb fakt perspektiva e rigjetjes s\u00eb klasave t\u00eb t\u00ebra me mosh\u00eb rinore krejt\u00ebsisht t\u00eb boshatisura p\u00ebr ta detyruar Rusin\u00eb q\u00eb t\u2019i jap\u00eb fund impenjimit luftarak n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb \u2013 perspektiv\u00eb q\u00eb megjitat\u00eb nuk do t\u00eb jet\u00eb realiste p\u00ebrpara disa vitesh.<\/p>\n Si\u00e7 ka dal\u00eb nga ky riepilog i shpejt\u00eb, zgjedhjet e lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb shkojn\u00eb n\u00eb sfer\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb thell\u00eb t\u00eb individit, por nuk ezaurohen sigurisht tek njeriu apo n\u00eb \u00e7ift, pasi jan\u00eb t\u00eb influencuara edhe nga kompleksi i jetes\u00ebs sociale n\u00eb artikulimet e ndryshme t\u00eb saj: \u201cThere really is such a thing as society\u201d,<\/em> p\u00ebr t\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtuar Margaret Thatcher. Kjo konsiderat\u00eb e thjesht\u00eb duhet t\u00eb mjaftoj\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb demonstruar se nj\u00eb politik\u00eb demografike efikase nuk do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebhet kurr\u00eb nga nj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje univoke apo nj\u00ebdimensiona\u00ebe, aq m\u00eb pak kur kjo d\u00eb t\u00eb ishte autoritare apo vertikale. Ashtu si konstatimi se rritja yjore e PBB s\u00eb regjistruar n\u00eb Per\u00ebndim n\u00eb 30 vje\u00e7arin e tundit ka p\u00ebrkuar me rritjen e mir\u00ebqenies sociale (p\u00ebrkundrazi) dhe as nuk mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb mas\u00eb e vlefshme, as pik\u00ebnisje p\u00ebr t\u2019i korrigjuar kursin.<\/p>\n Pra ka pik\u00ebpyetje jokomode mbi modelin ekonomik dhe social t\u00eb adoptuar nga liberal \u2013 demokracit\u00eb n\u00eb dekadat e fundit: nj\u00eb model i karakterizuar nga shkurtimi i sistemit social dhe nga zvog\u00eblimi i politikave publike, delokalizimi i tekstur\u00ebs prodhuese dhe nga p\u00ebrhapja e modeleve t\u00eb paq\u00ebndrueshme t\u00eb pun\u00ebs, kalimi nga realja n\u00eb imaterialen e proceseve t\u00eb krijimit t\u00eb pasuris\u00eb dhe nga izolimi n\u00eb rritje i personave, si edhe nga pasojat e tyre mbi sjelljet individuale. B\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr pik\u00ebpyetje q\u00eb do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb gjejn\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar forma sociale, si edhe nga modelet demografike, m\u00eb t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetsh\u00ebm n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn afatgjat\u00eb.<\/p>\n (nga Aspen Insitute<\/em>)<\/p>\n P\u00ebrgatiti<\/strong><\/p>\n ARMIN TIRANA<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u00c7\u00ebshtja demografike prek thelbin dhe vet\u00ebdijen e \u00e7do shoq\u00ebrie. N\u00ebse zakonisht t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat me karakter ekonomiko \u2013 social jan\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira p\u00ebr t\u2019u kontekstualizuar e interpretuar dhe, p\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb, t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira p\u00ebr t\u2019u komunikuar, ato q\u00eb kan\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb me lindje, vdekje, rritje apo r\u00ebnie t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb jan\u00eb me impakt t\u00eb menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm, pasi godasin imagjinat\u00ebn …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":45006,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-kulture"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45005","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45005"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45005\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/45006"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45005"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45005"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45005"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}