N\u00ebse nj\u00eb ekonomisti t\u00eb njohur nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar do t\u2019i k\u00ebrkohej q\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebnte nj\u00eb vler\u00ebsim p\u00ebr ecurin\u00eb ekonomike t\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, ai do t\u00eb bazohej n\u00eb disa variabla, si tendencat demografike, ecuria e konsumit, produktiviteti, eksport-importe e bilanci tregtar, \u00e7mimet, kredia apo dhe investimet q\u00eb po b\u00ebjn\u00eb sip\u00ebrmarrjet p\u00ebr teknologjin\u00eb e informacionit dhe njohurit\u00eb (know-how).<\/p>\n
Bazuar n\u00eb k\u00ebto variabla zyrtare, p\u00ebr 4-mujorin e par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit, ai do t\u00eb arrinte n\u00eb p\u00ebrfundimin q\u00eb ekonomia nuk po ec\u00ebn dhe aq mir\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Konsumi nuk ka ndonj\u00eb rritje dometh\u00ebn\u00ebse, e reflektuar kjo n\u00eb r\u00ebnien e t\u00eb ardhurave nga TVSH-ja p\u00ebr 4-mujorin me 0.58% me baz\u00eb vjetore, tkurrjen e importeve t\u00eb grupeve kryesore si ushqimet, me 11.2%.<\/p>\n
Zhvillimet demografike, si rrjedhoj\u00eb e emigracionit t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb, ku vet\u00ebm n\u00eb vitin 2022 kishte 31 mij\u00eb k\u00ebrkesa p\u00ebr azil n\u00eb Bashkimin Europian dhe Mbret\u00ebrin\u00eb e Bashkuar dhe inflacioni i lart\u00eb vler\u00ebsohen si arsyet kryesore q\u00eb kan\u00eb ndikuar n\u00eb konsum.<\/p>\n
As produktiviteti nuk shihet t\u00eb jet\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsuar, teksa bizneset, q\u00eb po p\u00ebrballen me kostot e shtuara nga koniunktura nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare e lokale, po detyrohen nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb t\u00eb rrisin pagat, disa me detyrim nga ndryshimi i pag\u00ebs minimale, e disa t\u00eb tjer\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb frenuar ikjen e punonj\u00ebsve, duke pasur m\u00eb pak hap\u00ebsira p\u00ebr t\u00eb investuar n\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimin e teknologjis\u00eb. As deficiti tregtar nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsuar n\u00eb 4-mujorin e par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit.<\/p>\n
Kredia e re p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb ishte rreth 3% m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt n\u00eb tremujorin e par\u00eb, n\u00eb krahasim me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn periudh\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb viti m\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/p>\n
T\u00eb gjitha sinjalet jan\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsim t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb n\u00eb muajt e par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit, n\u00eb linj\u00eb dhe me parashikimet e institucioneve nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, t\u00eb cilat presin q\u00eb vendi t\u00eb rritet me 2.5-3% k\u00ebt\u00eb vit, nga 4.8% n\u00eb vitin 2022.<\/p>\n
Sektori m\u00eb me potencial dhe me ecuri pozitive p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb vit mbetet turizmi, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb interesit t\u00eb lart\u00eb q\u00eb ka Shqip\u00ebria dhe natyra e saj nga t\u00eb huaj.<\/p>\n
Por, ekonomia, ndryshe nga matematika, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb shkenc\u00eb ekzakte, teksa ka shum\u00eb faktor\u00eb q\u00eb nuk mund t\u00eb parashikohen, si\u00e7 ishte pandemia e vitit 2020, q\u00eb ktheu p\u00ebrmbys t\u00eb gjitha pritshm\u00ebrit\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Aq m\u00eb tep\u00ebr n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri, ku variablave normal\u00eb u shtohen dhe faktor\u00ebt informal\u00eb, q\u00eb ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb jan\u00eb aq t\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm, saq\u00eb zhvler\u00ebsojn\u00eb dhe variablat formale. Shembulli m\u00eb i mir\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb ecuria e kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit n\u00eb prill dhe pjesa e par\u00eb t\u00eb majit, t\u00eb cil\u00ebn \u00e7do ekonomist, q\u00eb nuk e njeh realitetin shqiptar, do ta kishte shum\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb ta shpjegonte.<\/p>\n
Nga data 15 mars deri m\u00eb 11 maj, q\u00eb p\u00ebrkon me fushat\u00ebn elektorale t\u00eb zgjedhjeve vendore, t\u00eb cilat u mbajt\u00ebn m\u00eb 14 maj, monedha e p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt u zhvler\u00ebsua me 3.5% n\u00eb tregun e brendsh\u00ebm, duke zbritur nga 114.5 lek\u00eb n\u00eb 110.68 lek\u00eb, niveli m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt historik.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb krahasim me fillimin e vitit 2023, euro u n\u00ebn\u00e7mua me 5.8%. Kjo tendenc\u00eb ka ardhur nga p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimi i faktor\u00ebve ekonomik\u00eb, tha Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb. Kan\u00eb ardhur shum\u00eb turist\u00eb, than\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb!<\/p>\n
Pak t\u00eb dh\u00ebna ka n\u00eb fakt p\u00ebr prillin, por bilanci tregtar, q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb elementi kryesor i bilancit t\u00eb pagesave (q\u00eb mat hyrje-daljet e valut\u00ebs nga vendi) sh\u00ebnoi rezultatin m\u00eb negativ t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti (-40 miliard\u00eb lek\u00eb).<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr eksportuesit, ky ishte nj\u00eb nga muajt m\u00eb negativ\u00eb q\u00eb nga koha e pandemis\u00eb, me shitjet q\u00eb u tkurr\u00ebn me 19.3%.<\/p>\n
Aq m\u00eb e pashpjegueshme do t\u00eb ishte p\u00ebr ekonomist\u00ebt rritja e fort\u00eb e euros n\u00eb dy-tre dit\u00ebt q\u00eb pasuan zgjedhjet. A ik\u00ebn turist\u00ebt brenda dy dit\u00ebsh? A u p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsua ekonomia sapo mbaruan zgjedhjet?<\/p>\n
Padyshim q\u00eb jo. Prej vitesh, vendi \u00ebsht\u00eb i mb\u00ebrthyer n\u00eb nj\u00eb nivel t\u00eb lart\u00eb informaliteti dhe hyrje t\u00eb valut\u00ebs nga burime t\u00eb panjohura, q\u00eb po shtremb\u00ebron t\u00eb gjith\u00eb treguesit real\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Ndon\u00ebse shum\u00ebkujt, ndoshta dhe qeveris\u00eb, mund t\u2019i leverdis\u00eb kjo situat\u00eb, p\u00ebr shkak se hyrja e valut\u00ebs i jep frym\u00ebmarrje ekonomis\u00eb n\u00eb afatin e shkurt\u00ebr, n\u00eb afatin e gjat\u00eb, efektet pritet t\u00eb jen\u00eb negative, p\u00ebr t\u00eb mos th\u00ebn\u00eb \u201cshkat\u00ebrruese\u201d.<\/p>\n
P.sh., nj\u00eb shfryrje e fllusk\u00ebs s\u00eb nd\u00ebrtimit, nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e t\u00eb cilit \u00ebsht\u00eb financuar nga k\u00ebto burime, mund t\u00eb rrezikoj\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e sistemit financiar. (k\u00ebtu shtrohet dhe ekuacioni tjet\u00ebr i v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u zgjidhur nga ekonomisti, ku ndon\u00ebse t\u00eb ardhurat nuk jan\u00eb rritur dhe popullsia po largohet, \u00e7mimet e pasurive t\u00eb paluajtshme n\u00eb kryeqytet jan\u00eb rritur ndjesh\u00ebm!)<\/p>\n
R\u00ebnia e euros ka paralizuar tashm\u00eb eksportuesit. Konkurrenca informale penalizon bizneset q\u00eb nuk varen nga k\u00ebto burime.<\/p>\n
E zeza nuk mund t\u00eb mbulohet dot me t\u00eb bardh\u00eb dhe fluksi i lart\u00eb i emigracionit \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb d\u00ebshmi e qart\u00eb q\u00eb iluzioni i ekonomis\u00eb, i cili fryhet nga informaliteti, nuk g\u00ebnjen dot m\u00eb asnj\u00eb!\/ EDITORIAL-MONITOR<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
N\u00ebse nj\u00eb ekonomisti t\u00eb njohur nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar do t\u2019i k\u00ebrkohej q\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebnte nj\u00eb vler\u00ebsim p\u00ebr ecurin\u00eb ekonomike t\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, ai do t\u00eb bazohej n\u00eb disa variabla, si tendencat demografike, ecuria e konsumit, produktiviteti, eksport-importe e bilanci tregtar, \u00e7mimet, kredia apo dhe investimet q\u00eb po b\u00ebjn\u00eb sip\u00ebrmarrjet p\u00ebr teknologjin\u00eb e informacionit dhe njohurit\u00eb (know-how). Bazuar n\u00eb …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":46526,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46525","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46525"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46525\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/46526"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46525"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}