Po t\u2019u q\u00ebndrosh vler\u00ebsimeve t\u00eb Kombeve t\u00eb Bashkuara mbi popullsin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore, n\u00eb prillin e k\u00ebtij viti India \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb vendi me popullsi m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb bot\u00ebs. Disa demograf\u00eb kan\u00eb fiksuar deri nj\u00eb dat\u00eb: 14 prilli. Sipas kalkulimeve t\u00eb tjera, si ato t\u00eb World Population Review dhe t\u00eb Macrotrends, kalimi duhej t\u00eb kishte ndodhur m\u00eb par\u00eb dhe India n\u00eb prill ka pasur tashm\u00eb rreth 5 milion banor\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb sesa Kina. N\u00eb nj\u00eb rast apo n\u00eb nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr, India, me t\u00eb arritur objektivin e 1 miliard e 460 milion banor\u00ebve, mund t\u00eb konsiderohet vendi me popullsi m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe n\u00eb bot\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Megjith\u00ebse duke marr\u00eb v\u00ebmendjen m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe nga ana e mediave, nuk b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb fakt q\u00eb Nju Delhit i p\u00eblqen t\u00eb mburret. Llogaritjet zyrtare t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb indiane bazohen akoma mbi censimentin e vitit 2011, pasi ai i m\u00ebpasmi \u00ebsht\u00eb shtyr\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb pandemis\u00eb s\u00eb Covid 19 dhe ka mund\u00ebsi, duke kaluar pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb gjysm\u00ebs s\u00eb fundit t\u00eb shekullit duke k\u00ebrkuar ta kontrolloj\u00eb rritjen e popullsis\u00eb, qeveria nuk i sheh k\u00ebto rezultate n\u00eb terma shum\u00eb pozitive.<\/p>\n
Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e gabuar t\u00eb pohohet se numra t\u00eb till\u00eb mund t\u2019i ofrojn\u00eb Indis\u00eb nj\u00eb \u201cdividend demografik\u201d, sidomos tani q\u00eb pjesa m\u00eb e madhe vendeve t\u00eb zhvilluara dhe n\u00eb rrug\u00ebn e zhvillimit kan\u00eb filluar t\u00eb plaken me shpejt\u00ebsi. N\u00eb let\u00ebr kjo me siguri q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb: n\u00eb rast se merret n\u00eb konsiderat\u00eb p\u00ebrqindja e popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb mosh\u00eb pune (midis 20 e 59 vje\u00e7\u00ebve), India ka tejkaluar 50% n\u00eb 2010 dhe do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb rritet deri n\u00eb vitin 2041, kur do t\u00eb arrij\u00eb pikun e 64%. Me pak fjal\u00eb, pakashum\u00eb se 1\/5 e hyrjeve t\u00eb reja n\u00eb tregun bot\u00ebror t\u00eb pun\u00ebs, n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb kohore, do t\u00eb jet\u00eb indiane.<\/p>\n
Sfidat e cil\u00ebsis\u00eb<\/strong>. N\u00eb nj\u00eb ekonomi moderne megjithat\u00eb cil\u00ebsia ka t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi sa sasia. P\u00ebr Indin\u00eb, sfida q\u00ebndron n\u00eb faktin se vala e madhe e t\u00eb rinjve n\u00eb ardhje do t\u00eb gjeneroj\u00eb nj\u00eb dividend vet\u00ebm n\u00ebse do t\u00eb jet\u00eb e formuar si\u00e7 duhet dhe e p\u00ebrdorur n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb produktive. Me 12 milion vende pune t\u00eb k\u00ebrkuara \u00e7do vit dhe megjith\u00ebse nj\u00eb prej koeficent\u00ebve t\u00eb rritjes ekonomike m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00ebt n\u00eb bot\u00eb, India mezi arrin t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb t\u00eb disponueshme shkolla dhe universitete p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb. Edhe pse p\u00ebrqindjet e alfabetizimit, q\u00eb v\u00ebrtiten n\u00eb rreth 75%, jan\u00eb ar\u00ebsyetueshm\u00ebrisht t\u00eb larta dhe p\u00ebrqindja midis t\u00eb rinjve \u00ebsht\u00eb ende e lart\u00eb, pika e dob\u00ebt jan\u00eb nivelet e kompetenc\u00ebs. India Skills Report 2023 thot\u00eb se p\u00ebr momentin vet\u00ebm rreth 50.3% t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb mosh\u00eb pune \u00ebsht\u00eb e p\u00ebrdorshme.<\/p>\n Me pak fjal\u00eb, India synon q\u00eb ta ruaj\u00eb hapin me val\u00ebn e t\u00eb rinjve t\u00eb saj dhe kjo nuk habit. Koh\u00ebt e fundit ka njoftuar nj\u00eb politik\u00eb t\u00eb re arsimore komb\u00ebtare, e studiuar p\u00ebr t\u00eb t\u00ebrhequr investime dhe bashk\u00ebpunime private n\u00eb sektorin e arsimit t\u00eb lart\u00eb. P\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitur pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt p\u00ebr sektor\u00ebt e rinj ekonomik\u00eb, ka n\u00ebnshkruar marr\u00ebveshje formimi dhe profesionalizimi me nj\u00eb gjysm\u00eb dyzine shtetesh. Ajo m\u00eb e vonshmja, me Taivanin, synon q\u00eb t\u00eb formoj\u00eb teknik\u00eb indian\u00eb n\u00eb artin e prodhimit t\u00eb gjysm\u00ebp\u00ebr\u00e7uesve. Megjithat\u00eb, duke pasur parasysh numrat p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilat po flasim dhe kapacitetet e kufizuara t\u00eb shtetit indian, k\u00ebt\u00eb masa do t\u00eb shkalafisin vet\u00ebm sip\u00ebrfaqen e nevojave reale. Sot indian\u00ebt q\u00eb jan\u00eb m\u00eb pak se 25 vje\u00e7 jan\u00eb nj\u00eb sasi mbres\u00ebl\u00ebn\u00ebse: 700 milion. N\u00eb konfrontim, Banka Bot\u00ebrore ka llogaritur se e gjith\u00eb popullsia bot\u00ebrore e student\u00ebve t\u00eb regjistruar n\u00ebp\u00ebr universitete v\u00ebrtitet p\u00ebrreth 220 milion\u00ebve. T\u00eb rinjt\u00eb indian\u00eb do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb zgjidhje alternative, sidomos n\u00eb formimin online.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb karakteristik\u00eb e rritjes s\u00eb popullsis\u00eb indiane jan\u00eb diferencat n\u00eb nivel rajonal. Rritja e popullsis\u00ebe shteteve t\u00eb jugut, m\u00eb t\u00eb pasur dhe m\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb ar\u00ebsimuar, prej disa vitesh vendoset n\u00ebn nivelin e z\u00ebvend\u00ebsimit. Edhe n\u00eb shtetet lindore dhe per\u00ebndimore, p\u00ebrqindja e rritjes \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr e q\u00ebndrueshme. Kjo n\u00ebnkupton se gjat\u00eb muajve t\u00eb ardhshme do t\u00eb jen\u00eb shtetet veriore dhe qendrore ato q\u00eb do t\u00eb kontribuojn\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb joproporcionale ndaj krahut t\u00eb pun\u00ebs, pavar\u00ebsisht se jan\u00eb ato me treguesit m\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebqinj t\u00eb zhvillimit njer\u00ebzor dhe kan\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt m\u00eb pak t\u00eb kualifikuarit e vendit. Edhe johomgjeniteti etnik i rajoneve nuk ndihmon: banor\u00ebt e jugut t\u00eb Indis\u00eb frik\u00ebsohen n\u00eb fakt se pasoja e dividendit demografik do t\u00eb jet\u00eb marxhinalizimi politik dhe transferimi i pasuris\u00eb drejt veriut. P\u00ebr ta th\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb tjet\u00ebr, pabarazia midis veriut t\u00eb varf\u00ebr dhe jugut t\u00eb pasur n\u00eb termat e t\u00eb ardhur\u00ebs dhe kapitalit social \u00ebsht\u00eb pakashum\u00eb m\u00eb pak ekuivalent me at\u00eb q\u00eb ekziston midis Afrik\u00ebs dhe Europ\u00ebs.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb fenomen me efekte globale<\/strong>. K\u00ebto fenomene do t\u00eb ken\u00eb reperkusione edhe n\u00eb nivel global, pasi do t\u00eb asistojn\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb emigrimit indian p\u00ebrtejdetit. India nuk ka qen\u00eb kurr\u00eb nj\u00eb burim i madh p\u00ebr emigrant\u00eb. P\u00ebr nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb historis\u00eb s\u00eb saj p\u00ebrtej pavar\u00ebsis\u00eb, emigracioni neto, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb numri i emigrant\u00ebve p\u00ebr \u00e7do 100000 persona, nuk ka shkuar kurr\u00eb p\u00ebrtej numrit 7. Nga fillimi i mij\u00ebvje\u00e7arit e k\u00ebtej \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur n\u00eb fakt t\u00eb tejkalohet kuota 26 dhe vazhdon t\u00eb rritet. Diaspora indiane midis viteve 1990 e 2020 thuajse \u00ebsht\u00eb trifishuar, duke kaluar nga 6.6 milion persona n\u00eb rreth 18 milion t\u00eb till\u00eb. Kjo i detyrohet n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe nj\u00eb sasie mbres\u00ebl\u00ebn\u00ebse t\u00eb rinjsh, por reflekton edhe imazhin pozitiv q\u00eb emigrant\u00ebt indian\u00eb kan\u00eb fituar n\u00eb vende t\u00eb caktuara, sidomos n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara, p\u00ebr aft\u00ebsit\u00eb e tyre teknologjike dhe biznesore. Marr\u00ebveshjet treg\u00ebtare t\u00eb n\u00ebnshkruara koh\u00ebt e fundit me Emiratet e Bashkuara Arabe dhe Australin\u00eb. Nju Delhi po k\u00ebrkon edhe t\u00eb n\u00ebnshkruaj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje past\u00ebrtisht emigrimi, p\u00ebr shembull me Italin\u00eb, seli e diaspor\u00ebs m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe indiane n\u00eb Europ\u00eb.<\/p>\n N\u00ebse India do t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje ta forcoj\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje t\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb, nga pik\u00ebpamja ekonomike, rezultatet do t\u00eb jen\u00eb fenomenale. Vendi mund t\u00eb aspiroj\u00eb dhe t\u2019i afrohet sukseseve t\u00eb epok\u00ebs mesjetare, kur p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsonte rreth 25% t\u00eb pasuris\u00eb bot\u00ebrore, dhe t\u00eb b\u00ebhet nj\u00eb konkurrente e Kin\u00ebs moderne. N\u00ebse n\u00eb fakt nuk do t\u00eb arrij\u00eb t\u00eb investoj\u00eb mbi popullsin\u00eb, do t\u00eb b\u00ebhet nj\u00eb version gjigant i Meksik\u00ebs apo i Filipineve, t\u00eb ng\u00ebrthyer n\u00eb kurthin e nj\u00eb klase t\u00eb mesme me nj\u00eb krah pune pak produktiv dhe nj\u00eb rritje mediokre t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave p\u00ebr frym\u00eb.<\/p>\n Qeveria e Narendra Modi nuk ka hezituar t\u00eb ndjek\u00eb politika kontrolli demografik t\u00eb miratuara nga paraardh\u00ebset. Pjes\u00ebrisht e influencuar nga preokupimet e mb\u00ebshtet\u00ebsve t\u00eb saj p\u00ebr domensionet e supozuara m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb familjeve q\u00eb i p\u00ebrkasin pakicave fetare, ka folur n\u00eb shum\u00eb raste p\u00ebr t\u00eb imponuar metoda t\u00eb rrepta kontrolli t\u00eb lindjeve. Qeverit\u00eb e disa shteve vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb kufizojn\u00eb benefitet administrative dhe t\u00eb welfare p\u00ebr familjet q\u00eb kan\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 2 f\u00ebmij\u00eb. Megjithat\u00eb, k\u00ebto diskutime tashm\u00eb e kan\u00eb humbur kontaktin me realitetin demografik indian.<\/p>\n Pesha e \u201cKinindis\u00eb\u201d<\/strong>. Kontrasti me Kin\u00ebn, q\u00eb ka qen\u00eb qendra e popullsis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore pakashum\u00eb qysh nga fillimi i historis\u00eb, nuk mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb i madh. Fal\u00eb dekadave t\u00eb politik\u00ebs s\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00ebs s\u00eb vet\u00ebm, e aplikuar me rrept\u00ebsi dhe nganj\u00ebher\u00eb deri brutalisht deri n\u00eb braktisjen e saj (2015), popullsia kineze \u00ebsht\u00eb reduktuar dhe do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb reduktohet me nj\u00eb rit\u00ebm pazakonshm\u00ebrisht t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb. Duke supozuar se pjes\u00ebmarrja e krahut t\u00eb pun\u00ebs do t\u00eb q\u00ebndroj\u00eb konstante n\u00eb nivelet e vitit 2010, midis viteve 2022 e 2100 krahu i pun\u00ebs kinez do t\u00eb reduktohet me 56%, duke zbritur n\u00eb 348 milion. Popullsia kineze n\u00eb vitin 2100 do t\u00eb jet\u00eb me rreth 800 milion, thuajse gjysma e 1 miliard e gjysm\u00ebs s\u00eb Indis\u00eb, e cila at\u00ebheredo ta ket\u00eb tejkaluar prej 3 dekadash pikun e 1.6 miliard\u00ebve. Nj\u00eb statistik\u00eb mbres\u00ebl\u00ebn\u00ebse q\u00eb ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb me martesat. India celebron rreth 10 milion martesa n\u00eb vit, thuajse \u00bc e totalit bot\u00ebror. Kina celebron m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 8 milion n\u00eb vit, n\u00eb reduktim drastik.<\/p>\n Kjo nuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se Kina do t\u00eb ndeshet me kolapsin ekonomik. Gjat\u00eb 20 apo 30 viteve t\u00eb ardhshme krahu i pun\u00ebs s\u00eb saj do t\u00eb reduktohet me vet\u00ebm prej 8% n\u00eb vit. Pekini mund t\u2019i kompensoj\u00eb k\u00ebto shifra, duke e rritur mosh\u00ebn e daljes n\u00eb pension, duke anulluar kufizimet e vjetra t\u00eb spostimeve nga fshatrave e qyteteve dhe duke investuar m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb automatizim. Referimet e p\u00ebrs\u00ebritura t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb kineze ndaj nj\u00eb \u201crritjeje me cil\u00ebsi t\u00eb lart\u00eb\u201d dhe n\u00eb nj\u00eb \u201cekonomi me qarkullim t\u00eb dyfisht\u00eb\u201d tregojn\u00eb nj\u00eb strategji ruajtje t\u00eb rritjes n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet ngritjesp\u00ebrgjat\u00eb shkall\u00ebs teknologjike dhe promovimin e konsumit t\u00eb brendsh\u00ebm. Edhe k\u00ebshtu, shum\u00eb ekonomist\u00eb parashikojn\u00eb se Kina do t\u00eb asistoj\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb rritje prej 3% apo 4% n\u00eb vit, nj\u00eb e dh\u00ebn\u00eb shum\u00eb larg mga numrat dyshifror\u00eb q\u00eb kan\u00eb transformuar vendin. P\u00ebrvoja e Japonis\u00eb, q\u00eb lufton prej dekadash me t\u00eb dh\u00ebna demografike t\u00eb disfavorshme, nuk duhet harruar. Pavar\u00ebsisht investimeve t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb teknologji, Japonia nuk ka qen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje ta shmang\u00eb r\u00ebnien e popullsis\u00eb. Brenda vitit 2050, kombinimi i plakjes, reduktimit t\u00eb krahut t\u00eb paun\u00ebs dhe kufizimet ndaj emigracionit nga jasht\u00eb do do t\u00eb b\u00ebhen p\u00ebr Kin\u00ebn nj\u00eb pesh\u00eb strukturore e pakalueshme.<\/p>\n N\u00eb terma demografik\u00eb, ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb moment jasht\u00ebzakonisht interesant. Pavar\u00ebsisht r\u00ebnies, Kina dhe India, n\u00eb rritje, p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb n\u00eb terma numerik\u00eb tregun e konsumator\u00ebve m\u00eb t\u00eb madh t\u00eb bot\u00ebs, ndoshta m\u00eb i madhi q\u00eb do t\u00eb shikojm\u00eb ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb. \u201cKindia\u201d sot p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson 1\/3 e popullsis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore, 1\/3 e konsumator\u00ebve bot\u00ebror\u00eb dhe rreth 25% e shpenzimeve p\u00ebr konsume globale, e konsideruar me barazi n\u00eb fuqi bler\u00ebse.<\/p>\n Brenda vitit 2030 t\u00eb dy vendet do t\u00eb arrijn\u00eb rreth gjysm\u00eb miliardi konsumator\u00eb, mbo gjysma e rritjes s\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme bot\u00ebrore, dhe do t\u00eb p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsojn\u00eb 42% e shpenzimit global p\u00ebr konsumet. Konsumator\u00ebt kinez\u00eb do t\u00eb jen\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb pasur, m\u00eb t\u00eb moshuar dhe m\u00eb urban\u00eb. Ata indian\u00eb do t\u00eb jen\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb rinj, por ende t\u00eb lidhur me fshatin. Asnj\u00eb vend n\u00eb bot\u00eb nuk mund t\u2019i lejoj\u00eb vetes q\u00eb t\u00eb mos i llogaris\u00eb k\u00ebta gjigant\u00eb.<\/p>\n (nga Aspenia Institute<\/em>)<\/p>\n P\u00ebrgatiti<\/strong><\/p>\n ARMIN TIRANA<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Po t\u2019u q\u00ebndrosh vler\u00ebsimeve t\u00eb Kombeve t\u00eb Bashkuara mbi popullsin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore, n\u00eb prillin e k\u00ebtij viti India \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb vendi me popullsi m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb bot\u00ebs. Disa demograf\u00eb kan\u00eb fiksuar deri nj\u00eb dat\u00eb: 14 prilli. Sipas kalkulimeve t\u00eb tjera, si ato t\u00eb World Population Review dhe t\u00eb Macrotrends, kalimi duhej t\u00eb kishte ndodhur m\u00eb …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":53550,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53549","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-kulture"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53549","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53549"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53549\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/53550"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53549"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53549"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53549"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}