{"id":65450,"date":"2023-12-04T10:24:08","date_gmt":"2023-12-04T10:24:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/?p=65450"},"modified":"2023-12-04T10:24:08","modified_gmt":"2023-12-04T10:24:08","slug":"ukraine-nje-paqe-e-mundur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/2023\/12\/04\/ukraine-nje-paqe-e-mundur\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukrain\u00eb: Nj\u00eb paqe e mundur?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>N\u00eb jav\u00ebt e fundit ka pasur nj\u00eb seri ngjarjesh q\u00eb mund t\u00eb prodhojn\u00eb nj\u00eb ndryshim t\u00eb vendosur n\u00eb politik\u00ebn e \u00e7uar p\u00ebrpara deri m\u00eb tani nga fuqit\u00eb per\u00ebndimore. N\u00eb Poloni, pjes\u00ebrisht p\u00ebr ar\u00ebsye t\u00eb brendshme dhe pjes\u00ebrisht prej nj\u00eb uljeje t\u00eb fort\u00eb t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb grurit t\u00eb detyruar nga konkurrenca ukrainase, kryeministri Mateusz Mazowiecki ka njoftuar se nuk do t\u2019i furnizoj\u00eb armatime t\u00eb m\u00ebtejshme Ukrain\u00ebs. N\u00eb Sllovaki koalicioni qeveritar i qendr\u00ebs s\u00eb djatht\u00eb, n\u00eb favor t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetjes s\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs, \u00ebsht\u00eb mundur nga ish kryeministri Robert Fico, sot n\u00eb drejtim t\u00eb nj\u00eb koalicioni qeveritar t\u00eb partive t\u00eb qendr\u00ebs s\u00eb djatht\u00eb fuqimisht kund\u00ebr p\u00ebrfshirjes n\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb vendit. Kurse n\u00eb <em>States<\/em>, fajtore nj\u00eb Parti Republikane gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb e spostuar n\u00eb pozicione trumpiane, Kongresi i ka th\u00ebn\u00eb jo nj\u00eb pakete t\u00eb re ndihmash p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn. Emergjenca e luft\u00ebs midis Izraelit dhe Hamasit e ka spostuar drejt Levantit v\u00ebmendjen e opinionit publik per\u00ebndimor dhe jo, si prej valenc\u00ebs s\u00eb fort\u00eb t\u00eb kauzave t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshira, ashtu edhe p\u00ebr rrezikun se mos kjo degjeneron n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb madhe rajonale dhe kjo do ta \u00e7oj\u00eb pashmangshm\u00ebrisht Per\u00ebndimin t\u00eb reflektoj\u00eb mbi p\u00ebrpar\u00ebsit\u00eb e tij, edhe n\u00eb parashikim t\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrplasjeje t\u00eb mundur me Kin\u00ebn lidhur me Taivanin. Ajo q\u00eb po verifikohet \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb skenar aspak i pazakont\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00ebn e qytet\u00ebrimeve dhe q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrshkruar si\u00e7 duhet nga Huntington n\u00eb gjithmon\u00eb aktualin <em>P\u00ebrplasja e qytet\u00ebrimeve<\/em>. Ky tip konflikti, n\u00eb t\u00eb cilin e reja e asaj q\u00eb n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb futet totalisht, karakterizohet prej pranis\u00eb s\u00eb pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebsve t\u00eb shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb par\u00eb, t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb direkt n\u00eb konflikt, dhe t\u00eb pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebsve t\u00eb shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb dyt\u00eb e t\u00eb tret\u00eb, q\u00eb n\u00ebse nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb mb\u00ebshtesin aktivisht nj\u00ebr\u00ebn nga t\u00eb dyja pal\u00ebt, nga ana tjet\u00ebr k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb n\u00eb limitet e s\u00eb mundshmes t\u00eb shmangin nj\u00eb p\u00ebrfshirje t\u00eb drejt\u00ebp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb. Jan\u00eb pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebsit e shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb dyt\u00eb e t\u00eb tret\u00eb, jo ata t\u00eb shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb par\u00eb, q\u00eb l\u00ebvizin frenat e loj\u00ebs, si duke ju v\u00ebn\u00eb fre ambicieve t\u00eb pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebsve t\u00eb shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb par\u00eb apo n\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt duke i nxitur kur kjo futet n\u00eb interesat e tyre, ashtu edhe duke negociuar midis tyre me q\u00ebllim q\u00eb t\u00eb gjejn\u00eb nj\u00eb zgjidhje paq\u00ebsore t\u00eb konfliktit.<\/p>\n<p>Ky aspekt i fundit \u00ebsht\u00eb ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm pasi, si rregull, \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb e v\u00ebshir\u00eb t\u00eb gjendet nj\u00eb konflikt qytet\u00ebrimesh i zgjidhur direkt nga pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebsit e shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb par\u00eb, p\u00ebrve\u00e7se mes spastrimeve etnike, genocideve dhe asimilimeve t\u00eb detyruara. P\u00ebr shembull, konflikti veriirlandez \u00ebsht\u00eb zgjidhur n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet negociatave midis Mbret\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb Bashkuara dhe Republik\u00ebs s\u00eb Irland\u00ebs (pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebs t\u00eb shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb dyt\u00eb) dhe pastaj n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet nd\u00ebrhyrjes s\u00eb nj\u00eb fuqie t\u00eb tret\u00eb, Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara, q\u00eb t\u00eb pajisur me lidhjet e tyre me t\u00eb dyja vendet dhe me pranin\u00eb e nj\u00eb komuniteti masiv hibernoamerikan arrit\u00ebn t\u2019ua marrin l\u00ebshimet t\u00eb gjitha pal\u00ebve n\u00eb konflikt. Edhe paqja e Dayton, q\u00eb i ka dh\u00ebn\u00eb fund luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Bosnje, ka qen\u00eb rezultat i nj\u00eb serie negociatash midis nj\u00eb grupi kontakti q\u00eb p\u00ebrfshinte Franc\u00ebn, Rusin\u00eb, Shtetet e Bashkuara, Mbret\u00ebrin\u00eb e Bashkuar dhe Gjermanin\u00eb (t\u00eb gjith\u00eb pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebs t\u00eb shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb tret\u00eb). Kurse konfliktet e ngrira nuk jan\u00eb edhe aq fruti i mosmarr\u00ebveshjeve midis pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebsve t\u00eb shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb par\u00eb sesa i paaft\u00ebsis\u00eb apo i munges\u00ebs s\u00eb vullnetit nga ana e pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebsve t\u00eb shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb dyt\u00eb e t\u00eb tret\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb lidhur kompromise n\u00eb ndonj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb ar\u00ebsyeshme dhe t\u2019ia imponojn\u00eb at\u00eb pal\u00ebve t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetura prej tyre: rastet e Kosov\u00ebs, Qipros Veriore dhe Nagorno \u2013 Karabakut jan\u00eb tregues n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>N\u00eb luft\u00ebn n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebsit e shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb par\u00eb jan\u00eb nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb qeveria ukrainase dhe komponentet nacionaliste dhe proper\u00ebndimore t\u00eb shoq\u00ebris\u00eb ukrainase, nga ana tjet\u00ebr element\u00ebt prorus\u00eb t\u00eb saj dhe sidomos separatist\u00ebt e Krimes\u00eb dhe Donbassit. Grindja midis t\u00eb dy shpirt\u00ebrave t\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00ebs ukrainase, q\u00eb shkon p\u00ebrpara nga pavar\u00ebsia dhe rr\u00ebnj\u00ebt e s\u00eb cil\u00ebs shkojn\u00eb nga coptimi i Rus\u2019 t\u00eb Kievit, kishte si objekt fillimisht Bankovan, q\u00eb p\u00ebr 20 vjet ka par\u00eb t\u2019i alternohen president\u00eb prorus\u00eb dhe proper\u00ebndimor\u00eb dhe pastaj kontrollin e rajoneve proruse nj\u00eb her\u00eb q\u00eb k\u00ebta t\u00eb fundit jan\u00eb ulur n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrhershme n\u00eb qeverin\u00eb ukrainase. N\u00eb nj\u00eb nivel m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb gjejm\u00eb faktikisht disa fuqi per\u00ebndimore, si Shtetet e Bashkuara, Mbret\u00ebrin\u00eb e Bashkuar dhe disa vende t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs Qendrolindore (<em>in primis<\/em> Polonia) dhe nga ana e kund\u00ebrt e Rusis\u00eb. Kronohistoria e ngjarjeve q\u00eb kan\u00eb \u00e7uar tek lufta n\u00eb zhvillim \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb e njohur dhe nuk futet n\u00eb q\u00ebllimet e k\u00ebtij artikulli. Ajo q\u00eb vlen \u00ebsht\u00eb se akoma m\u00eb shum\u00eb se Irlanda e Veriut dhe Bosnje \u2013 Hercegovina, \u00e7do tentativ\u00eb nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsimi midis pal\u00ebve respektive do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb kaloj\u00eb pashmangshm\u00ebrisht n\u00eb ndonj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje midis pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebsve t\u00eb shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb dyt\u00eb. Grindjet midis k\u00ebtyre t\u00eb fundit, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb e njphur, kan\u00eb luajtur nj\u00eb rol themelor n\u00eb eg\u00ebrsimin e konfliktit dhe nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb sekret q\u00eb kontrolli q\u00eb k\u00ebta ushtrojn\u00eb mbi pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebsit e shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb par\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb i till\u00eb sa t\u00eb d\u00ebshtoj\u00eb \u00e7do iniciativ\u00eb autonome nga ana e k\u00ebtyre t\u00eb fundit, si\u00e7 e demonstron d\u00ebshtimi i traktativave t\u00eb paqes n\u00eb prillin e 2022.<\/p>\n<p>Megjithat\u00eb kjo nuk e p\u00ebrjashton q\u00eb edhe n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebsit e shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb par\u00eb dhe t\u00eb dyt\u00eb mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb objektiva divergjues. NATO dhe, p\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb, Shtetet e Bashkuara e mb\u00ebshtesin Ukrain\u00ebn si p\u00ebr ar\u00ebsye ideale, ashtu edhe pse ajo \u00ebsht\u00eb funksionale p\u00ebr objektivat strategjik\u00eb t\u00eb tyre: mbajtja ndaras e Rusis\u00eb dhe e Europ\u00ebs Per\u00ebndimore, e detyrojn\u00eb Rusin\u00eb q\u00eb ta pranoj\u00eb rolin e nj\u00eb fuqie rajonale t\u00eb thjesht\u00eb t\u00eb rrethuar nga vende armiq\u00ebsore dhe t\u2019i jap\u00eb nj\u00eb m\u00ebsim shembullor t\u00eb gjith\u00eb atyre q\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen do t\u00eb donin t\u00eb sfidonin primat\u00ebsin\u00eb amerikane, <em>in primis<\/em> Kina. Ama jo p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb synojn\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb hyjn\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00eb kund\u00ebr fuqis\u00eb kryesore b\u00ebrthamore t\u00eb planetit dhe e nj\u00ebjta gj\u00eb vlen edhe p\u00ebr vende si Polonia, e ndar\u00eb nga Rusia nga 500 vite rivalitet: menaxhimi i Incidentit t\u00eb Przewod\u00f3w, potencialisht i shfryt\u00ebzuesh\u00ebm si <em>casus belli<\/em> p\u00ebr t\u00eb hyr\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00eb kund\u00ebr Rusis\u00eb, i \u00ebsht\u00eb prova. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast Ukraina ka k\u00ebrkuar ta shtyj\u00eb NATO n\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrjen direkte, e vetma gj\u00eb q\u00eb ndoshta do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb lejonte t\u00eb merrej Krimeja; ama menaxhimi i incidentit ka qen\u00eb i till\u00eb q\u00eb ka b\u00ebr\u00eb t\u00eb qart\u00eb se p\u00ebrtej p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebsive askush n\u00eb frontin per\u00ebndimor ishte n\u00eb k\u00ebrkim t\u00eb nj\u00eb <em>casus belli<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn m\u00ebnyr\u00eb, p\u00ebr separatist\u00ebt e Donbassit, objektivi fillestar nuk ishte autonomia, por pavar\u00ebsia. Sigurisht, midis 2014 dhe 2022, republikat separatiste t\u00eb Donjeckut dhe Luhanskut jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb faktikisht shtete t\u00eb pavarura, t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetura nga Moska q\u00eb ishte edhe garantja e k\u00ebsaj pavar\u00ebsie; por p\u00ebr Kremlinin fundi nuk ishte nj\u00eb Krime e re \u2013 r\u00ebnd\u00ebsia strategjike e Donbassit \u00ebsht\u00eb qesharake \u2013 apo nj\u00eb Transnitri e re, por nj\u00eb ekuivalente ukrainase e Republik\u00ebs Srpska t\u00eb Bosnjes, n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb garantoj\u00eb autonomi kulturore banor\u00ebve t\u00eb saj dhe t\u00eb parandaloj\u00eb q\u00eb Ukraina t\u00eb b\u00ebhej nj\u00eb kok\u00eb ure kund\u00ebr Rusis\u00eb. Referendumet e 11 majit 2014 nuk jan\u00eb njohur kurr\u00eb nga Moska, q\u00eb i ka p\u00ebrdorur n\u00eb fakt p\u00ebr t\u2019i l\u00ebshuar nj\u00eb paralajm\u00ebrim Kievit me q\u00ebllim q\u00eb t\u00eb niste nj\u00eb dialog me ata q\u00eb qeveria ukrainase guxonte t\u2019i quante terrorist\u00eb. P\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb, deri m\u00eb 2022, pika e nisjes ishte Marr\u00ebveshja e Minskut, pavar\u00ebsisht indipendentizmit dhe irredentizmit t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb Donbass, dhe aq m\u00eb shum\u00eb pushtimi i 24 shkurtit 2022, kur aneksimi i rajonit n\u00eb shtatorin e m\u00ebpas\u00ebm kan\u00eb qen\u00eb l\u00ebvizje ekstreme, t\u00eb b\u00ebra kur t\u00eb gjitha opsionet e tjera qen\u00eb tashm\u00eb t\u00eb papraktikueshme.<\/p>\n<p>Hap\u00ebsira ukrainase po nis paqen? Po dhe jo. N\u00eb muajt e fundit sigurisht nj\u00eb seri ngjarjesh ka nxjerr\u00eb lakuriq natyr\u00ebn iluzore t\u00eb objektivave globaliste dhe neokonservatore. Shum\u00eb e paralajm\u00ebruara kund\u00ebrofensiv\u00eb e pranver\u00ebs (n\u00eb rregulla nj\u00eb ofensiv\u00eb n\u00eb rregull t\u00eb plot\u00eb) ka rezultuar nj\u00eb falimentim global, e p\u00ebrfunduar me pushtimin e disa territoreve t\u00eb vogla n\u00eb af\u00ebrsit\u00eb e vij\u00ebs s\u00eb frontit, p\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr me \u00e7mimin e humbjeve t\u00eb m\u00ebdha njer\u00ebzore dhe materiale. Tokmaku, nj\u00eb prej objektivave kryesore t\u00eb kund\u00ebrsulmit, i mbetur fuqimisht n\u00eb dor\u00ebn ruse, p\u00ebr t\u00eb mos folur p\u00ebr Melitopol\u2019 dhe Berdjanks, dhe sipas <em>New York Times<\/em>, q\u00eb p\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr i ka b\u00ebr\u00eb kalkulimt e saj p\u00ebrpara fillimit t\u00eb sulmit rus mbi Avdeevka, nga 1 janari 2023 pushtimet territoriale ruse kan\u00eb qen\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha se humbjet. Industria luftarake per\u00ebndimore, e specializuar n\u00eb prodhimin e pak mjeteve me p\u00ebrmbajtje t\u00eb lart\u00eb teknologjike, \u00ebsht\u00eb krejt\u00ebsisht e pap\u00ebrgatitur p\u00ebr nj\u00eb luft\u00eb me intensitet t\u00eb lart\u00eb me nj\u00eb fuqi t\u00eb barabart\u00eb n\u00eb shkall\u00eb dhe jo vet\u00ebm t\u00eb gjitha vendet europiane, por edhe vet\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara po p\u00ebrballen me probleme serioze n\u00eb rezervat e disa armatimeve. Nga ana e saj, industria luftarake ruse jo vet\u00ebm q\u00eb ka mbetur e pad\u00ebmtuar, por bile ka par\u00eb ta rris\u00eb potencialin prodhues t\u00eb saj dhe deri m\u00eb tani ka dal\u00eb komplesivisht e forcuar nga konflikti, si\u00e7 e demonstron rritja e fort\u00eb e nj\u00eb sektori n\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn krejt\u00ebsisht i anashkaluar si fabrikimi i dron\u00ebve.<\/p>\n<p>N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00ebpamje, shp\u00ebrthimi i kriz\u00ebs n\u00eb Gaza ka p\u00ebrb\u00ebr\u00eb nj\u00eb dalje t\u00eb bekuar t\u00eb m\u00ebtejshme p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb. N\u00eb nj\u00eb diskutim t\u00eb koh\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit, Joe Biden ka lan\u00e7uar nj\u00eb paket\u00eb t\u00eb re mb\u00ebshtetjeje p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn \u2013 p\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr shum\u00eb m\u00eb i madh se ai i refuzuar nga Kongresi \u2013 dhe p\u00ebr Izraelin, por fatet e t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtit jan\u00eb aspak t\u00eb ditura, si n\u00eb virtyt t\u00eb armiq\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb krahut trumpian t\u00eb Partis\u00eb Republikane kundrejt ndihmave t\u00eb Kievit, ashtu edhe t\u00eb jo shum\u00eb t\u00eb larg\u00ebtave zgjedhje presidenciale. Pavar\u00ebsisht parashikimeve, Rusia nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb shembur dhe indinjiata fillestare p\u00ebr pushtimin rus t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs po la l\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb vendin frik\u00ebs s\u00eb nj\u00eb \u201clufte t\u00eb pafundme\u201d t\u00eb radh\u00ebs. Edhe at\u00ebhere kur paketa e ndihmave do t\u00eb duhej t\u00eb kalonte, ashtu si mb\u00ebshtetja amerikane p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn e ka dob\u00ebsuar edhe Izraelin (n\u00eb gusht, p\u00ebr shembull, nj\u00eb furnizim me fishek\u00eb amerikan\u00eb p\u00ebr Izraelin \u00ebsht\u00eb kthyer drejt Kievit), n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn m\u00ebnyr\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetja e p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn dhe Izraelin pashmangshm\u00ebrisht do t\u00eb implikoj\u00eb sakrifica p\u00ebr t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn nj\u00ebr\u00ebn prej pal\u00ebve, sidomos n\u00eb nj\u00eb kontekst ku p\u00ebrplasja midis Izraelit dhe Hamasit rrezikon t\u00eb b\u00ebhet nj\u00eb luft\u00eb e madhe rajonale ku kjo e fundit do t\u00eb g\u00ebzoj\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetje pakashum\u00eb implicite t\u00eb vcendeve myslimane dhe at\u00eb patjet\u00ebr edhe m\u00eb implicite t\u00eb popullsive t\u00eb tyre. natyra e p\u00ebrplasjes s\u00eb qytet\u00ebrimit t\u00eb luft\u00ebs p\u00ebr Gazan mund ta p\u00ebrshpejtoj\u00eb procesin e largimit nga Shtetet e Bashkuara t\u00eb shum\u00eb vendeve islamike tradicionaliste proper\u00ebndimore dhe gj\u00ebja \u00ebsht\u00eb e dukshme qysh sot p\u00ebr Turqin\u00eb, q\u00eb me goj\u00ebn e presidentit t\u00eb saj i ka quajtur luft\u00ebtar\u00ebt e Hamasit \u201c\u00e7lirimtar\u00eb dhe joterrorist\u00eb\u201d. S\u00eb fundmi, por jo n\u00eb analiz\u00eb t\u00eb fundit, standardet e dyfishta per\u00ebndimore ndaj Rusis\u00eb dhe Izraelit p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb nj\u00eb argument shum\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb propagande kund\u00ebr Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara ndaj Bot\u00ebs s\u00eb Tret\u00eb, sidomos p\u00ebr rreth 1.9 miliard mysliman\u00ebt e shp\u00ebrndar\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebr glob.<\/p>\n<p>Megjithat\u00eb, kjo nuk implikon se paqja \u00ebsht\u00eb af\u00ebr. Mandati i arrestimit kund\u00ebr Putinit nga ana e Gjykat\u00ebs Penale Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare \u00ebsht\u00eb patjet\u00ebr nj\u00eb vendim i past\u00ebr politik, q\u00eb me \u00e7do gjas\u00eb nuk do t\u00eb zbatohet kurr\u00eb, por jo p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb se \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb vendim i anashkaluesh\u00ebm, duke par\u00eb se q\u00ebllimi \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb l\u00ebshohet nj\u00eb mesazh shum\u00eb \u00eb qart\u00eb atyre lider\u00ebve per\u00ebndimor\u00eb q\u00eb mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb \u201ctunduar\u201d nga fillimi i nj\u00eb procesi t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb paqeje me Rusin\u00eb: Putini \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb bashk\u00ebbisedues i padenj\u00eb p\u00ebr \u00e7do traktativ\u00eb paqeje. Edhe fakti q\u00eb drejton procesin \u00ebsht\u00eb avokatin britanik Karim Khan, v\u00eblla i ish parlamentarit konservator Imran Ahmad, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb tamam nj\u00eb detaj: si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb par\u00eb, Mbret\u00ebria e Bashkuar \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb prej vendeve m\u00eb aktive n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kryq\u00ebzat\u00eb antiruse. Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, jo vet\u00ebm Rusia \u2013 jo Putini, por Rusia \u2013 nuk mund t\u00eb lejoj\u00eb humbjen e luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, duke par\u00eb se kjo do t\u00eb implikonte pranimin e nj\u00eb plani paqeje q\u00eb n\u00eb rregull do t\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebnte nj\u00eb Versaj\u00eb, por vendi mund t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetet mbi resurse njer\u00ebzore dhe materiale akoma t\u00eb pap\u00ebrdorura, q\u00eb sipas \u00e7do gjase do t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb mjaftueshme q\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb q\u00eb gjeneratat e ardhshme t\u00eb rus\u00ebve t\u00eb mos e shikojn\u00eb carin si Hitlerin, por si Ataturkun e tyre. Megjith\u00ebse n\u00ebn rrogoz, traktativat jan\u00eb tashm\u00eb n\u00eb zhvillim, por pavar\u00ebsisht se Per\u00ebndimi mund t\u2019ia lejoj\u00eb vetes nj\u00eb humbje n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb pa q\u00eb kjo t\u00eb marr\u00eb nj\u00eb karakter strategjik, pengesat politike jan\u00eb ende t\u00eb shumta, k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb n\u00eb rregullat t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtat mund t\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb shum\u00eb vite dhe nj\u00eb k\u00ebmbim t\u00eb klas\u00ebs drejtuese p\u00ebrpara se t\u00eb japin rezultate konkrete.<\/p>\n<p>Nj\u00eb penges\u00eb e m\u00ebtejshme p\u00ebrb\u00ebhet nga mungesa e nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsve t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm. Si\u00e7 thoshte Huntington dhe si\u00e7 e kemi par\u00eb edhe n\u00eb Irland\u00ebn e Veriut, \u201ckonfliktet midis vendeve apo grupeve t\u00eb kultur\u00ebs s\u00eb zakonshme mund t\u00eb zgjidhen n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb pale t\u00eb tret\u00eb t\u00eb pinteresuar hapur edhe ajo ndaj asaj kulture dhe q\u00eb pal\u00ebt nd\u00ebrluftuese mendojn\u00eb se jan\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb gjejn\u00eb nj\u00eb zgjidhje koherente me vlerat e tyre\u201d. N\u00eb ndryshim nga katolik\u00ebt dhe protestant\u00ebt e Irland\u00ebs s\u00eb Veriut, t\u00eb dy komponent\u00ebt e hap\u00ebsir\u00ebs ukrainase dhe mb\u00ebshtet\u00ebsit respektiv\u00eb i p\u00ebrkasin kulturave t\u00eb ndryshme dhe kjo e kufizon ndjesh\u00ebm numrin e nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsuesve t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm. Izraeli, q\u00eb n\u00eb virtyt t\u00eb pozicionit t\u00eb tij t\u00eb barazlarguar nga Rusia dhe Ukraina \u2013 megjith\u00ebse me nj\u00eb prirje t\u00eb leht\u00eb ndaj k\u00ebsaj t\u00eb fundit i detyrohet armiq\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb saj ndaj Iranit, aleat i Mosk\u00ebs \u2013 e kreditit q\u00eb g\u00ebzon n\u00eb <em>States<\/em> dhe t\u00eb faktit se \u00ebsht\u00eb vendi i vet\u00ebm per\u00ebndimor q\u00eb as nuk ia ka vendosur sanksione Rusis\u00eb, as nuk i ka d\u00ebrguar arm\u00eb Kievit, ishte ndoshta vendi m\u00eb i p\u00ebrshtatsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsuar midis dy pal\u00ebve. \u201cModeli izraelian\u201d p\u00ebr mbrojtjen e Ukrain\u00ebs parashikon mb\u00ebshtetje per\u00ebndimore n\u00eb termat e formimit ushtarak dhe furnizimit me armatime si alternativ\u00eb ndaj nj\u00eb aleance mbrojtje apo aderimit t\u00eb NATO dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb produkt i diskutimeve midis Zelenskij dhe ish kryeministrit izraelian Naftali Bennett. Bisedime paralele midis Mosk\u00ebs dhe ish kryeministrit izraelian projektonin garanci p\u00ebr Putinin mbi jet\u00ebn e presidentit dhe heqjen dor\u00eb nga projekti i \u201cdenazifikimit\u201d t\u00eb vendit, duke u kufizuar t\u00eb k\u00ebrkoj\u00eb nj\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb neutrale dhe jo t\u00eb transformueshme n\u00eb nj\u00eb kok\u00eb ure kund\u00ebr Rusis\u00eb. Por, si\u00e7 u deklarua melankolikisht nga vet\u00eb Bennett, traktativat jan\u00eb sabotuar nga Shtetet e Bashkuara dhe Mbret\u00ebria e Bashkuar.<\/p>\n<p>Jo shum\u00eb i ndrysh\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb diskutimi p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsimin e Pap\u00ebs, i privuar nga mb\u00ebshtetje substanciale n\u00eb Per\u00ebndimin q\u00eb ka pesh\u00eb dhe i par\u00eb me dyshim sa n\u00eb Rusi, aq edhe n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. Megjith\u00ebse duke i mb\u00ebshtetur n\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn p\u00ebrpjekjet e Putinit p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbrojtur komunitetet kristiane t\u00eb Siris\u00eb, Papa \u00ebsht\u00eb megjithat\u00eb kreu i Kish\u00ebs Katolike, nd\u00ebrsa Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb vend ortodoks. Megjith\u00ebse thelb\u00ebsisht t\u00eb ngjashme n\u00eb planin doktrinor, t\u00eb dy kishat tentojn\u00eb ta shikojn\u00eb nj\u00ebra tjetr\u00ebn si skizmatike; raportet e tyre, n\u00eb virtyt t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj, shpesh jan\u00eb te tendosura dhe grindjet midis Primatit Pjetrin dhe \u201cFes\u00eb s\u00eb V\u00ebrtet\u00eb\u201d jan\u00eb ndoshta shtyt\u00ebsi i v\u00ebrtet\u00eb ideologjik i luft\u00ebrave midis Rusis\u00eb dhe Per\u00ebndimit p\u00ebrpara se t\u00eb z\u00ebvend\u00ebsohet nga \u00e7\u00ebshtje t\u00eb lidhura me demokracin\u00eb, primatin e tregjeve ndaj shteteve komb\u00ebtare dhe t\u00eb individit mbi komunitetet dhe t\u00eb drejtat LGBT. Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb refuzohen shum\u00eb parimi i ekuivalenc\u00ebs morale midis t\u00eb dy nd\u00ebrluftuesve, faktikisht n\u00eb baz\u00ebn e \u00e7do traktative paqeje, sa \u00e7do minimum vler\u00ebsimi i Pap\u00ebs ndaj kultur\u00ebs ruse. Pastaj nuk duhet harruar se pavar\u00ebsisht se n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb Papa mund t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetet mbi nj\u00eb num\u00ebr diskret besimtar\u00ebsh, kisha greko \u2013 katolike ukrainase \u00ebsht\u00eb nd\u00ebr m\u00eb nacionalistet midis institucioneve religjoze t\u00eb pranishme n\u00eb vend dhe se djepi i nacionalizmit ukrainas, specifikisht Galicia, \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe rajoni vet\u00ebm ku uniat\u00ebt jan\u00eb shumic\u00eb; pa llogaritur q\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebto kontekste, si edhe n\u00eb Poloni, Kroaci e Irland\u00eb, katolicizmi megjithat\u00eb universalist p\u00ebrzihet me nacionalizmin. Paradoksalisht, pra edhe komponentja katolike e Ukrain\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb thelb\u00ebsisht armiq\u00ebsore ndaj nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsimit t\u00eb Pap\u00ebs.<\/p>\n<p>S\u00eb fundmi mbetet shk\u00ebmbi i p\u00ebrmbajtjes s\u00eb traktativ\u00ebs s\u00eb paqes. Duke p\u00ebrjashtuar nj\u00eb Minsk 3 \u2013 riintegrim n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb t\u00eb territoreve t\u00eb aneksuara nga Rusia n\u00eb 2022 n\u00eb k\u00ebmbim t\u00eb nj\u00eb statuti special \u2013 dhe nj\u00eb rimodulimi t\u00eb kufijve mbi baz\u00ebn e linj\u00ebs aktuale t\u00eb frontit n\u00eb k\u00ebmbim t\u00eb aderimit t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs n\u00eb NATO, si\u00e7 u propozua disa muaj m\u00eb par\u00eb nga nj\u00eb zyrtar i lart\u00eb i Aleanc\u00ebs, n\u00eb rregulla opsionet e praktikueshme jan\u00eb dy: ngrirja e konfliktit dhe nj\u00eb zgjidhje politike q\u00eb i tejkalon \u00e7\u00ebshtjet territoriale. N\u00eb rastin e par\u00eb, t\u00eb dy vendet do t\u00eb mbeteshin formalisht n\u00eb rrug\u00ebn false t\u00eb dy Koreve, sanksionet antiruse do t\u00eb mbesnin n\u00eb fuqi, shum\u00eb prej \u00e7\u00ebshtjeve urgjente nuk do t\u00eb zgjidheshin dhe ndoshta konflikti do t\u00eb vazhdonte, megjith\u00ebse me intensitet shum\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt. N\u00eb rastin e dyt\u00eb do t\u00eb kishim rivendosjen e marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve diplomatike midis Rusis\u00eb dhe Ukrain\u00ebs, zgjidhjen e t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn nj\u00eb pjese t\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtjeve t\u00eb mbetura pezull midis dy vendeve (p\u00ebr shembull me nj\u00eb lloj \u201cshk\u00ebmbimi\u201d midis abrogimit apo aq m\u00eb pak pezullimin e procesit t\u00eb aderimit t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs n\u00eb NATO dhe zbatimin e garancive t\u00eb siguris\u00eb per\u00ebndimore sipas modelit izraelian t\u00eb p\u00ebrmendur m\u00eb par\u00eb), abrogimin e t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn nj\u00eb pjese t\u00eb sanksioneve antiruse dhe transformimin e vij\u00ebs s\u00eb frontit t\u00eb momentit n\u00eb nj\u00eb linj\u00eb kontrolli mbi linj\u00ebn false t\u00eb asaj q\u00eb n\u00eb Kashmir ndan territoret indiane nga ato pakistaneze. \u00c7\u00ebshtje t\u00eb tjera, si ajo e rind\u00ebrtimit t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs dhe mbi statusin e qytetar\u00ebve t\u00eb territoreve filoruse t\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00ebs ukrainase, mund t\u00eb zgjidhet n\u00eb perspektiv\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>N\u00eb t\u00eb dyja rastet do t\u00eb b\u00ebhej fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb \u201cpaqe t\u00eb ftoht\u00eb\u201d, megjith\u00ebse opsioni i dyt\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb paksa i vak\u00ebt dhe do ta largonte rrezikun e nj\u00eb lufte t\u00eb re. Adoptimi i nj\u00ebrit prej k\u00ebtyre modeleve apo ndoshta nj\u00eb zgjidhje e nd\u00ebrmjetme, do t\u00eb varet shum\u00eb nga situata n\u00eb terren, si edhe nga evolucioni politik i vendeve per\u00ebndimore, si edhe nga situata gjeopolitike globale. Ka mund\u00ebsi q\u00eb n\u00eb rastin e nj\u00eb fitoreje t\u00eb Trump n\u00eb zgjedhjet e ardhshme amerikane, n\u00eb harkun e ndonj\u00eb viti do t\u00eb kemi nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje paqeje m\u00eb t\u00eb af\u00ebrt me opsionin e dyt\u00eb, ndoshta n\u00eb k\u00ebmbim t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetjes ruse ndaj Iranit dhe n\u00eb nj\u00eb neutralitet substanciale t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb rastin e nj\u00eb konflikti midis Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara dhe Kin\u00ebs. N\u00eb rast fitoreje t\u00eb Biden apo at\u00ebhere kur komponentet globaliste dhe neokone do t\u00eb q\u00ebndronin t\u00eb forta, dp t\u00eb mund t\u00eb asistonim maksimumi n\u00eb nj\u00eb ngrirjeje t\u00eb konfliktit. P\u00ebr momentin b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr hipotez\u00eb dhe gj\u00ebrat e vetme p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilat mund t\u00eb jesh mjaft t\u00eb qart\u00eb jan\u00eb nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb nj\u00eb rritje e ardhshme e shtytjes so dialogut me Rusin\u00eb dhe nga ana tjet\u00ebr nj\u00eb vazhdim i konfliktit p\u00ebr t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 1 \u2013 2 vite t\u00eb tjera.<\/p>\n<p>(nga <em>Eurasia<\/em>)<\/p>\n<p><strong>P\u00ebrgatiti<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>ARMIN TIRANA<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>N\u00eb jav\u00ebt e fundit ka pasur nj\u00eb seri ngjarjesh q\u00eb mund t\u00eb prodhojn\u00eb nj\u00eb ndryshim t\u00eb vendosur n\u00eb politik\u00ebn e \u00e7uar p\u00ebrpara deri m\u00eb tani nga fuqit\u00eb per\u00ebndimore. N\u00eb Poloni, pjes\u00ebrisht p\u00ebr ar\u00ebsye t\u00eb brendshme dhe pjes\u00ebrisht prej nj\u00eb uljeje t\u00eb fort\u00eb t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb grurit t\u00eb detyruar nga konkurrenca ukrainase, kryeministri Mateusz Mazowiecki ka &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":65451,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-65450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-kulture"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65450"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65450\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/65451"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}