{"id":82557,"date":"2024-06-19T08:50:13","date_gmt":"2024-06-19T08:50:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/?p=82557"},"modified":"2024-06-19T08:50:13","modified_gmt":"2024-06-19T08:50:13","slug":"cfare-sikleti-ka-banka-e-shqiperise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/2024\/06\/19\/cfare-sikleti-ka-banka-e-shqiperise\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7far\u00eb sikleti ka Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Klodian Tomorri<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Brenda nj\u00eb periudhe nj\u00eb javore Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb ka nd\u00ebrhyr\u00eb tre her\u00eb n\u00eb tregun valutor p\u00ebr t\u00eb bler\u00eb euro, nga t\u00eb cilat dy prej ankandeve ishin t\u00eb pa planifikuara. P\u00ebr gjith\u00eb muajin qershor BSH kishte shpallur paraprakisht se do t\u00eb blinte valut\u00eb n\u00eb tre raunde, p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht n\u00eb datat 6, 13 dhe 21 qershor. Por me dy operacionet jasht\u00eb radhe, gjasat jan\u00eb q\u00eb n\u00eb qershor t\u00eb zhvillohen minimalisht 5 ankande p\u00ebr blerje eurosh nga tregu i brendsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n<p>P\u00ebr ata q\u00eb e ndjekin politik\u00ebn monetare, kjo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e zakont\u00eb. P\u00ebrkundrazi. Nd\u00ebrhyrjet me frekuenc\u00eb dhe intensitet t\u00eb lart\u00eb n\u00eb tregun e k\u00ebmbimit t\u00eb parave sinjalizojn\u00eb se Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb nuk ndihet rehat me zhvillimet n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb treg. Por \u00e7far\u00eb po e shqet\u00ebson Bank\u00ebn Q\u00ebndrore?<\/p>\n<p>Shqip\u00ebria ka nj\u00eb kurs t\u00eb liberalizuar k\u00ebmbimi, sipas t\u00eb cilit \u00e7mimet e monedhave n\u00eb raport me nj\u00ebra tjer\u00ebn vendosen nga tregu i lir\u00eb. Por kuadri rregullator n\u00eb fuqi e autorizon Bank\u00ebn Q\u00ebndrore t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyj\u00eb n\u00eb treg p\u00ebr tre q\u00ebllime kryesisht; menaxhimin e rezerv\u00ebs valutore t\u00eb vendit, shmangien e \u00e7rregullimeve n\u00eb tregun valutor dhe p\u00ebrshtatjen e kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit me faktor\u00ebt baz\u00eb ekonomik.<\/p>\n<p>Nga pikp\u00ebpamja financiare blerja e eurove n\u00eb kushtet aktuale do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb operacion i leverdissh\u00ebm p\u00ebr financimin e rezerv\u00ebs valutor\u00eb t\u00eb vendit me kosto relativisht t\u00eb ul\u00ebt. Por nd\u00ebrsa rezerva e huaj ndodhet n\u00eb rekordet m\u00eb t\u00eb larta historike, do t\u00eb ishte e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb q\u00eb Banka Q\u00ebndrore t\u00eb motivohej nga llogari kambist\u00ebsh p\u00ebr t\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb d\u00ebrhyrje t\u00eb k\u00ebtyre p\u00ebrmasave n\u00eb treg. Aq m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, kur gjasat jan\u00eb q\u00eb euro t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb dob\u00ebsohet ndaj lekut dhe financimi i rezerv\u00ebs valutore t\u00eb b\u00ebhet edhe m\u00eb i lir\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>S\u00eb dyti, kursi i k\u00ebmbimit t\u00eb lekut vazhdon t\u00eb shfaq\u00eb nj\u00eb prirje t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme mbi\u00e7mimi. Por pavar\u00ebsisht k\u00ebsaj l\u00ebvizjet e kursit euro lek kan\u00eb qen\u00eb graduale dhe jo me magnitud\u00eb t\u00eb madhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb justifikuar nd\u00ebrhyrjet emergjente si mas\u00eb frenuese e spekullimeve.<\/p>\n<p>Pra, rrjedhimisht mbetet vet\u00ebm q\u00ebllimi i tret\u00eb. A po beson Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb se leku po mbi\u00e7mohet p\u00ebrtej niveleve normale dhe se kursi i k\u00ebmbimit t\u00eb monedh\u00ebs komb\u00ebtare me euron nuk pasqyron fondamentet e ekonomis\u00eb? Edhe n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast p\u00ebrgjigja do t\u00eb ishte m\u00eb shum\u00eb JO. Deri m\u00eb sot q\u00ebndrimi i Bank\u00ebs Q\u00ebndrore p\u00ebr zhvillimet n\u00eb kursin e k\u00ebmbimit ka qen\u00eb i pal\u00ebkundur. Sipas saj kursi euro lek \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb linj me faktor\u00ebt themelor\u00eb dhe fuqizimin ekonomik t\u00eb vendit. At\u00ebher\u00eb \u00e7far\u00eb halli ka Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, q\u00eb po ble euro masivisht nga tregu i brendsh\u00ebm?<\/p>\n<p>P\u00ebrgjigja m\u00eb logjike e k\u00ebsaj pyetje \u00ebsht\u00eb se Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb nuk e do euron posht\u00eb nivelit t\u00eb 100 lek\u00ebve. Me shum\u00eb gjasa, kursi i k\u00ebmbimit 1 me 100 perceptohet si nj\u00eb dysheme psikologjike p\u00ebr tregun valutor. N\u00ebse euro e thyen k\u00ebt\u00eb nivel dhe bie posht\u00eb kursit 100 lek\u00eb ekziston rreziku i efektit kaskad\u00eb psikologjik q\u00eb mund ta rrokullis\u00eb euron edhe m\u00eb posht\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>Kjo mund t\u00eb kishte t\u00eb tjera pasoja n\u00eb parametrat makroekonomik t\u00eb vendit, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb treguesin e \u00e7mimeve. Dob\u00ebsimi i euros do ta shtynte ekonomin\u00eb drejt dizinflacionit. N\u00eb kushtet aktuale, kur inflacioni baz\u00eb po shkon posht\u00eb nivelit 2 p\u00ebr qind, dob\u00ebsimi i euros mund ta reduktonte edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb rritjen e \u00e7mimeve duke e shtyre ekonomin\u00eb drejt inflacionit zero dhe ndoshta edhe drejt deflacionit. P\u00ebr Bank\u00ebn e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb kjo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e mir\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>P\u00ebr ta th\u00ebn\u00eb shkurt, Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb i ka v\u00ebn\u00eb gjoksin batic\u00ebs dhe po p\u00ebrpiqet ta mbaj\u00eb euron me thonj n\u00eb kursin 100 lek\u00eb. Por ky nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb biznes pa risk. Kur p\u00ebrpiqesh t\u00eb mbash dallg\u00ebn, zakonisht ajo b\u00ebhet m\u00eb e madhe dhe t\u00eb p\u00ebrplas n\u00eb shk\u00ebmb. P\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht rrethimi i tregut \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb strategji me fund t\u00eb d\u00ebshtuar. Por e gjitha mbetet p\u00ebr t\u2019u par\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>Ben Bernanke, ish shefi i rezerv\u00ebs federale, thot\u00eb se politika monetare \u00ebsht\u00eb 97 p\u00ebr qind komunikim transparent me publikun dhe 3 p\u00ebr qind veprim. Por operacionet e tregut valutor nga Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb jan\u00eb diskrete dhe zbardhen me 3 muaj vones\u00eb. Pra, pas tre muajsh ne do t\u00eb m\u00ebsojm\u00eb arsyet dhe intensitetin e nd\u00ebrhyrjeve t\u00eb BSH n\u00eb tregun valutor p\u00ebr t\u00eb bler\u00eb euro. Por deri at\u00ebher\u00eb me shum\u00eb gjasa do t\u00eb kemi marr\u00eb vesh edhe fatin e dallg\u00ebs. A do t\u00eb ndaloj\u00eb ajo tek kursi 100 apo do t\u00eb p\u00ebrplas\u00eb tej edhe Bank\u00ebn Q\u00ebndrore?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Klodian Tomorri Brenda nj\u00eb periudhe nj\u00eb javore Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb ka nd\u00ebrhyr\u00eb tre her\u00eb n\u00eb tregun valutor p\u00ebr t\u00eb bler\u00eb euro, nga t\u00eb cilat dy prej ankandeve ishin t\u00eb pa planifikuara. P\u00ebr gjith\u00eb muajin qershor BSH kishte shpallur paraprakisht se do t\u00eb blinte valut\u00eb n\u00eb tre raunde, p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht n\u00eb datat 6, 13 dhe 21 qershor. &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":82055,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-82557","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-editorial"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82557","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82557"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82557\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82055"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82557"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82557"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rdnews.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82557"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}